Fossil Fuel VS Renewable Energy Resources

  

Fossil Fuel VS Renewable Energy Resources

China, The world's largest producer of Photovoltaic power (it is a method to convert solar energy into current) and also the largest producer and consumer of coal . China leads the world in its production of renewable energy, to that of combined production of Germany and France power plants. China is in leading production of renewable energy than fossil fuels and nuclear power. In September 2013, as an action plan, to control the air pollution, China's government desired to utilize more renewable energy as it has abundant water, wind and solar power than oil, coal and gas. In the year 2013, the coal production and consumption increased rapidly and later on, it dropped continuously by 3.7% in 2015. However the central government restricted and issued directions for construction of new coal plants in the country, and the National Energy Agency banned new constructions of coal mines for three months and sealed some thousands of small coal mines. In the year 2016, even though wind power generation capacity increased , nearly 26% of the total turbines were not utilized up to their maximum extent. Despite this, new turbines, which can generate 33 million kilowatts of electricity are installed, and now the country reached in generating the electricity to 129 million kilowatts per year. In previous years the over supply of wind turbines and the lack of smart grid to control the fluctuations resulted in the wastage of the wind, hydro and solar energy. To meet the demand and to stabilize the supply, the local government, along with some grid companies assigned power quotas to control the weakening demand. Coal plants are the easiest and fastest way towards the economic growth and in creating jobs.
Diversified Preferences
Some of the experts expressed that, the adopted policies of the local government are not appropriate and they are interrupting the development of the renewable energy sources. And others expressed that government supports fossil fuels rather than renewable resources which are cheap and supports the local people by creating the jobs. In the month of December in some parts of the country the respective authorities squeezed the production and levied more fee on wind, solar and hydro power producers and in some places the authorities reduced the price paid by the state from 40 to 75 %, to facilitate the local grid. This was strongly opposed by the renewable energy producers, this resulted a major loss for the wind energy producers. Due to the consequences, the wind power generating companies lost more than 18 billion yuan in production slots, and the world's largest wind energy firms also suffered a loss of 500 million yuan in 2015 as some of their turbines were forced to stop the production. Despite the demand drops, the local authorities support the coal fired power plants, without central government approval, approved 155 new coal power plants which is three times more that that of the approval rate of the previous year.
Increased Pressure
In the year 2014, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in China, had set up some long term future plans and targeted to increase the production of non-fossil fuel sources to more than 90% by 2050. Coal is the cheapest source of power generator, which costs 0.3yuan for one kWh, whereas 0.6yuan for solar power. To meet the goal now the government has to impose a pollution tax or a carbon tax on producers of fossil fuels, ultimately then there will be a rise in the cost of production of electricity. If this tax is levied, then by 2020, the coal power generation cost increases to 0.85 yuan per kWh to that of 0.51 yuan and 0.62 yuan per kWh for wind and solar energy.
One of the Main Functions of the NDRC is to formulate and implement strategies of national economic and social development, annual plans, medium and long-term development plans; to coordinate economic and social development; to carry out research and analysis on domestic and international economic situation; to put forward targets and policies concerning the development of the national economy, the regulation of the overall price level and the optimization of major economic structures, and to make recommendations on the employment of various economic instruments and policies; to submit the plan for national economic and social development to the National People's Congress on behalf of the State Council.
The central government has to observe the consequences that are occurring by the local authorities and has to take certain measures to control and implement the national level policies which supports the economy's growth and works wonders.

 

Chinese Banking

  

AIIB 2018

The Chinese policymakers had many doubts a couple years ago that almost cause one of Beijing's policy success to be halted on a global scale. These were the plans that were made for the development of China's new bank. Beijing faced many doubts facing investing in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. These doubts arise from the notion that the country would not be able to convince other nations to support them. China was however able to overcome this obstacle thanks to a few Middle East governments who made significant cash investments. The course of direction was aided by the help of some very important European nations supporting them as well, regardless of the opposition shown by the U.S.

The prior Chinese vice premier and AIIB president along with other stalwart supporters and a former chief of the China Investment Corp.in combination with overseas assertion was able to make the idea of the Asian bank to become a reality. Despite the financial difficulties that China is currently facing, the success of the establishment of the bank only serves to give Beijing a confidence boost needed to effectively play its role among the national financial institutions. The country was lacking this confidence in the initial stages of this venture due to the belief that there would be no financial backing.
The call on the Southeast Asian nations was discouraging as the governments of the majority of these nations were just not capable of financially backing the venture. They were in full support but did not have the finances to invest in the bank. It was subsequently the Middle East nations that made investments in the bank as they needed infrastructure and had the capability to pay for it. The Middle East nations deal in Oil and they possess foreign money. The implementation of this bank will amplify the influence that the Chinese government has on the financial development on a global stage.
There have already been fifty seven countries that have jumped on the wagon with a fraction of a bout a seventh of these countries being Middle East nations. They include Iran, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Emirates. The Chinese government has come under a lot of scrutiny with the question being asked if whether or not China is capable of properly and effectively operate a multilateral financial institute of this magnitude given the fact that the country has no prior experience in this field. It is the belief of many government skeptics that the AIIB will face losses.
Being a current member of the BRICS development bank was a factor that many used to challenge the credibility of China as the operator of this bank. The Chinese nation was to collaborate with the Russians on establishing another such lender. The implications that the Chinese government is unscrupulous would be brought to the forefront if an investment fund of this nature was established at the time suggested. The Russian government was fully with the idea of creating a bank with the Chinese. This was the argument brought by the AIIB proponents along with the fact that other BRICS bank members were competing to be the lead lender.
The AIIB will not only give China a stage to flaunt it financial influence but it allow the nation to receive positive feedbacks on the job being done. The Chinese government of the past was never for the idea of an institution of this magnitude despite the AIIB president's many pitches for one such institute to be erected in Beijing. The change in government since 2013 as seen China fully supporting the direction and ventures, the “one belt, one road” internal design and strategies for exportation. The Chinese leaders were persuaded to back the proposal of the bank's establishment by the potential forward movement of the ‘one belt, one road' plan by the AIIB. Zeng Peiyan, former vice premier who also leads the CCIEE was responsible of the proposal of the creation of the bank. The CCIEE supporting the proposal and the president of AIIB has had many consultations about the creation of the institute. It is the belief of many that the success of the AIIB is overwhelming and no one could have foreseen such great fortune and the response from so much people. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a multilateral development bank investing in infrastructure in Asia

 

Ticking debt and bond time-bombs

  

China Railway

China Railway Material Company (CRM), the biggest supplier for railroad construction materials has suspended all trading on its bonds worth 16.8 billion yuan. This is the first trading halt for a bond security and investor has been fearful since. CRM bonds are traded on platform offered by NAFMII. The company divulged that it is facing cash flow problem to repay the debt and is drafting a plan for protecting bond holders. Resumption of trading for the bonds is uncertain and not specified. CRM is the first corporation under the central government's supervision to freeze bond trades in order to address its debt issues. It is one of the handful of Chinese corporations facing default issues for their bonds as China faces economy slowdown. Shanghai Yunfeng, a subsidiary under Greenland Holdings, China's 3rd largest real estate developer, defaulted on 2 debt notes worth 2 billion. The company refused to work with investigation launched by NAFMII. Sinosteel Corporation, also a government owned steel company had defaulted on its debt notes repayment worth 2 billion. Baoding Tianwei, another government linked entity had reneged on its local bonds worth 4.5 billion in yuan. Analysts are concerned that the debt issue will hit the bond market for nonfinancial companies for future years.

CRM's decision shocked bond investors and may be a signal of more debt woes. New bond issuance will be affected negatively in terms of pricing and cost. Increasing financial costs will restrict companies from raising funds in the bond markets. Banks, insurance entities and fund managers have pulled back bond investments, according to CIC. 49 planned bond issuances were cancelled for March and April due to market fears. Private and State enterprises have long had debt troubles. However government has been trying hard to contain the problem. Bond investors have been enjoying government support to guarantee the face value of bonds repayment. Government has been stepping in with cash funding support to prevent default. The new policies launched to control economic slowdown are coming to an end. Government is retracting its support for inefficient companies and cut excess capacity. Investors are used to trusting government bailouts and rarely find any debt problems, until recently. They accepted the minimal financial transparency by companies issuing the bonds. Timely information were not available from companies and investors have difficulties finding a valid contact for information.
In the years before investor are more concerned on the issuer's connection with the government compared to disclosure of financials. It is not feasible anymore. Beijing policymakers have begun drafting rules in order to strengthen disclosure of financial info and credit rating for bonds. China Regulatory Commission for Securities and China Central Bank are heading the initiative. The guidelines could change the investing landscape by addressing the communication channel problem. Investors have been more careful since government issued orders to diminish overcapacity. Tianwei bond default made investor very nervous. Transparency issue forced NAFMII to investigate in detail the parent company for Yunfeng. Yunfeng has massive fund raising since 2012 to 2014, raising a total of 8.2 billion from private bond markets. Yunfeng transferred a few property to parent company Greenland and many feared bond default would happen when Greenland stops backing Yunfeng's debt. Bondholder tried requesting for financial reports from the underwriter but was not successful. Bondholders are prepared to sue Yunfeng and Greenland for lack of financial disclosures.
Investors questioned the bond underwriter status for Huayu Energy which missed repayment deadline for its bonds. Regulators are investigating any improper transfers from bond issuer's bank account to parent companies or subsidiaries. Tianwei is on the brink of default but share price were rising for the listed arm. The company arranged a few asset swaps since 2011 by transferring most valuable assets to Baobian Electric, a listed entity in Shanghai Stock Exchange. Baobian is profitable since 2014 and share price is steadily rising. However, Tianwei is suffering financially and had since defaulted on four term notes batches. Bond investors in the defaulting companies are trapped in a deteriorating credit environment. There is a real danger of high leverage for capital taken from retail investors. Wealth manager invested the proceeds in these bond markets.
China Railway Materials Company Limited (CRM) was reconstructed from China Railway Materials Commercial Corporate(CRMCC), the former Materials Administration Bureau of Ministry of Railways(MOR), with the approval of the State-owned Assets Supervision & Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC).

CRM is an ultra-large supply chain services provider focusing on serving customers in the markets of railway materials, steel products and minerals in China. Headquartered in Beijing, CRM has established over 1,000 subsidiaries, branches and operation offices, including seven operating overseas subsidiaries in Hong Kong, the United States, Australia and Sierra Leone.

CRM provide railway materials supply chain services including procurement, supply, quality control, inventory management, logistics, processing and information management in respect of railway materials such as railway diesel products, steel rails, key components of rail vehicles and steel and cement for railway construction, to serve the key sectors of the railway industry in China, namely, railway operations, rail vehicle production and railway construction.
 
A systemic risk is surfacing due to widening spread between asset yields and debt costs. Credit rating institutions have so far declared the market for bonds as being safe, but still can succumb to random risks. Analysts fear there are more problems to come. Many bonds could be on the verge of downgrade and when that happens, there could be a huge wave of sell-offs.

 

Rise as an economic powerhouse

  

china economic powerhouse

China is being watched carefully by global leader for every of China's foreign and economic policies and moves. Every foreign investors and expatriates are influenced by private views molded from their country, geographical region and political opinions. Security developments in China are different and that makes relations between the other parts of the world under pressure. There are safety concerns due to China's rising economic power. Many welcome the accomplishment that had pulled the world's growth. However, most Americans view it as a threatening situation to their own country's world standing. European citizens do not view China as a political threat but have similar concerns that China may forcefully preach their own development values. Most of the world do not see it as threatening, but there is diverse views among the people of world.

About 60% of Americans were concerned on China's rising might in economic power and about 75% think it is no trustworthy. China may have been though to contribute to US trade deficits and capturing the labor markets with low wages offered. Many filed complaints with WTO on China's perceived unfair subsidized export markets. US has used to basis for non-exclusion of China in the Trans Pacific Partnerships. On a side interesting note, Chinese people are fond of US, with surveys showing Chinese people admiring American innovative values and scientific achievements. US had an overwhelming advantage in exercising its subtle power image to complement its military might.
The perception for US and China relationship is influenced by economic trends. China emerged as the world's biggest trading country at the same time America is nursing from economic injury and recovering slowly from the 2008 subprime financial crisis. Europe was soon having fiscal budget issues around 2011. Gallup polls revealed that most Americans held the belief that China is the biggest economy in the world. It was completely different in 2000 where only 10% of American people thought China as the top while a huge 65% majority thought US as the top. Americans has good rating for China up till 2010. Sentiments turned for the worse as China becomes more aggressive in island dispute and negotiations. U.S. is seeking to rebalance its power and influence in Asia. Other parts of the globe sees US as main economic power and most Asian nations held the same view. Europe thinks it is otherwise by supporting China as the top economic superpower.
China's strong trade balance is the main reason U.S. and Europe views China as the top economic superpower. China has large trade surpluses against U.S. and Europe. However it has had trade deficits with other parts of the world, in particular commodity producers and Eastern Asian neighbors. There are considerable insecurity in the Western regions on their competitiveness. A country's true measure of economic resilience is more from its institutional quality and human capital development, which is represented more by GDP per capita and less by trade balance amount. China has only a GDP per capita ranking of 80 compared to world and not ready to take pole position.
Europeans have a more positive feelings for China compared to U.S. as there is lower power rivalry. They are also trying to avoid U.S. linked initiatives. There is wide perception difference between official opinions and popular opinions in Western Europe. Chinese and German economic relationship seem to be the strongest in Europe, but surveys showed that German public are less positive about China, perhaps due to cultural differences. Many would have the view that British would view China in an unfavorable light caused by Hong Kong's treatment by China and trade deficits that are large. In actual reality, there are extensive personal interactions built upon by tourism and financial links. Britain took the first initiative within EU to join China led Asian Infrastructure Investments Bank.
Outside of Europe and U.S., there are diverse views on China. It varies significantly by region and time period. After the Asia Financial Crisis, views on China become less favorable by Asian nations when they provided economic support. Island dispute dominate the headline in today's time. Latin America and African economy enjoyed good growth led by China's rise, but a slowdown is dimming their prospects. Public perception towards China is shaped by foreign and economic policy concerns. China has a huge challenge to deal with the complicated relationships when the whole world is slowing down economically.

 

Expanding position in worldwide finance

  

Guangzhou

The nation's monetary markets are developing, foreign investments continue pouring in, and wealth is streaming outward. What would it take to attain an innovative part of world lender? China, as the world's biggest saver, has a unique role to play in the worldwide monetary rebalancing toward developing markets. Today, these nation expresses 38 % of overall GDP yet represent only 7 % of global foreign investments in values and just 13 % of worldwide international lending.

Their part appears to be ready to develop in the moving post-crisis budgetary scene since the propelled economies face slow development and calming demographic patterns. As the leading man in that move, China could turn into a genuine worldwide lender and, with some change, set up the renminbi as a noteworthy universal currency.
So far, a long-closed economy— one, even with even above 3 trillion dollars in foreign capital— can't swing its entryways open overnight. China's local money related markets will need to extend and grow further, and revenues earned by companies, government and family units must be ascent if the nation is to draw in and convey more capital successfully. And equally the obstructions that keep people and organizations from capitalizing freely outside the environs of China, and strangers from capitalizing on them, will need to reduce bit by bit, and the nation must create the trust of worldwide financial specialists. Proceeded with a change in China, combined with its endless household investment funds and outsized part in world exchange, could make the nation one of the world's most prominent suppliers of capital in years to come.
Development and developing agonies in China's business sectors
As opposed to most growing economies, where loaning has been stagnant in the midst of the extensive deleveraging, bank advances in China have developed by 5.8 trillion dollars since 2007, achieving 132 % of GDP—higher than the propelled economy healthy of 123 %. Around 85 % of that Chinese loaning has been to organizations; family units represent the rest. This quick development has raised the apparition of a glory bubble and a future ascent in nonperforming advances. However, controllers have endeavored to moderate the pace in overheated territories, for example, land.
China's corporate-stock business sector is likewise evolving. Securities remarkably from nonfinancial organizations have developed by 45 % every year in the course of recent years, securities from monetary establishments by 23 %. There is adequate space for further development since China's levels of security business sector obtaining are altogether beneath those of cutting edge economies. For sure, security financing could give an option origination of capital for the nation's extending corporate segment, empowering banks to expand their loaning to families and little and fair size ventures.
Dissimilar to other numerous real value markets, China's securities exchange has not bounced back after the fiscal emergency and worldwide recession. Absolute market capitalization has reduced by 50 % since 2007, diving from 7.2 trillion dollars in 2007 to 3.6 trillion dollars in the second quarter of 2012. Financial specialists sent valuations taking off at the business sector's crest. However, fears of a lull and a more reasonable perspective of organization costs hosted their eagerness, underscoring the way that China's value markets, similar to those of other rising economies, stay focus to sharp swings.
Cross-fringe venture surges
China has challenged global patterns in cross-outskirt capital streams, which caved in 2008 and remain 60 % beneath their precrisis crest. For China, by difference, remote direct venture (FDI), cross-fringe advances and deposits, and outside portfolio reserves in values and security are 44 % more than 2007 levels (Exhibition 2). Aggregate outside speculation into China came to 477 billion dollars towards the end of 2011, surpassing the 2007 top of 331 billion dollars.
Foreign organizations, anxious to build up existence in China, represent about 66% of the inflows. Resources from the external establishment and discrete financial specialists could give another leg to development as long-standing limitations on foreign portfolio venture keep on easing. The quantity of experienced foreign institutional investors affirmed by Chinese controllers has increased since 2005 with a total of 33 drivers to a total of 207 in 2012 and will certainly still improve. Controllers likewise are giving enlisted foreign subsidies and more scope to put their property of renminbi offshore in China's local capital markets. Both actions have additional opened the way to foreign investment in those business sectors.
Notably, the country's central bank, the People's Bank of China, has gained the world's biggest stock of foreign-currency investments; in 2012, it was 3.3 trillion dollars. While most of this cash is capitalized into safe sovereign liabilities —for example, US treasuries, which represent about 1.2 trillion dollars of China's saves—the development in such ventures has impeded extensively. Rather, China is both extricating confinements on different sorts of money-related surges and moving to broaden its foreign assets. That was the driving force behind the 2007 establishment of the China Venture Organization, one of the world's biggest sovereign funds stores, with resources of 482 billion dollars. The organization's possessions incorporate shares in a considerable lot of the world's blue-chip organizations; vitality, mining, and infrastructure ventures; worldwide landed property; and a stake in Heathrow Airport, London.
Chinese institutions are likewise trading up their part in the world's finance. Foreign direct ventures by both state-claimed and private division; Chinese groups developed from just 1 billion dollars in the year 2000 to 101 billion dollars in 2011. Toward the end of 2011, Chinese groups represented 364 billion dollars of world's foreign direct ventures, with the vast majority of it secured to commodities. Nearly half of these reserves went to other developing markets—an offer higher than that for organizations in cutting-edge economies.
A lot of China's quickly expanding global loaning is attached to foreign speculation transacts including Chinese establishments (for example, financing a mine in Peru, with an erection to be embarked on by a Chinese organization). Exceptional foreign credits and loans totalled 838 billion dollars toward the end of 2011. To put this entirety in context, consider the way that the aggregate level of loans outstanding from five of the world's noteworthy mutual improvement banks is about 500 billion dollars. Subsequently from 2009, Chinese lends to America (Latin) have surpassed those of both the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank.
As China's monetary markets have turned out to be more vigorous and more profound, the estimation of its local financial assets—including securities, equities, and advances—tallies to about 7.4 trillion dollars, trailing Japan and USA. That is a more than ten times the increment in a range of two decades, and it does exclude Hong Kong's role in directing assets to and from China.

 

China Wealth Management Dilemma

  

Chinese Money

 

Financial market regulators commented that there are loopholes in their guidelines to regulate the wealth management space and protect lay investors. CSRC and CBRC has tried making new laws. There are still gaps in the regulatory space due to rapid growth for wealth management. The combined assets managed by banks, insurance companies, trust funds and fund managers almost exceed 90trillion yuan. There are risks surfacing as the sector grows. Regulators are starting to doubt the regulations as inadequate. There are regulatory holes need to be plugged. For instance, CBRC decided on reducing risk by asking banks to split the lending and wealth management business. Regulation was in draft but never really executed due to disagreements. There were great arguments over the split.

Stock market bear downturn went against wealth manager's investing performance. Insurance companies who had vested interest in stock markets has seen their asset value fall. Banking officials pointed at the regulators for encouraging risk taking by wealth managers. There was no good coordination between different agencies. Asset management sector is getting messier due proliferation of complicated investment package. Chinese banks controlled biggest portion of funds in 2015 and are invested via wealth management space. Trusts, securities firms, insurance companies and fund corporations were handling 16trillion, 12 trillion, 11 trillion and 9 trillion yuan respectively. Smartphones and internetas well as interest rate drops all pushed retail investors and huge financial outfits to investment in these wealth management package.
Sales proceeds from these products were ploughed into the equity markets. Asset managers are risking the funds on stock markets in Shenzhen and Shanghai. Some invested in corporate bonds and private placement. A total of about 7trillion yuan is invested into stocks, bonds as well as futures securities. 1.7trillion was invested in structured products. Bank executives were warned that borrowing spiked to cover for share market investment. Despite the share market volatility, equities are not riskiest. Private placement presents the highest risk. Banks are also funding out of balance sheet mezzanine financing, which is investing in shares of private companies via loans.
About 20% of assets from wealth management are invested into these types of financing. Good companies are targeted for the financing arrangement as it increases leverage risk. Risks have increase since the stock market crash and bubble is forming. Many see this as the only way for making profits due to low interest rate environment. Asset managers are finding it tough to find great investments. There are about 200billion excess funds with nowhere to invest except considering for share market. Moody's reported that weak share market could adversely affect bank's asset quality and profits due to weak stock lending and share market related custody services. Moody's expects more defaults on company debt as borrowers struggle on repaying their leverage. Wealth management as a whole should be revamped and risks are real.
Regulators have not been interfering with the investments. They have paid close scrutiny on funds raised from short term products in wealth management. These money are invested in long term projects which presents a mismatch. Asset management executives support more disclosure in investment products. Same rule and standardization should apply to the products similar to public funds. Retail investors ought to be protected by regulators by enhancing these measures. All regulatory bodies from China have pursued different goals and agendas and neglected on coordination. Each focused on their own segments. It is not effective due to loophole with different frameworks, especially in wealth management space. There are some who praise the innovative form of segmentation. Top policymakers have the ultimate power to pass through legislations for unification of regulations. There were examples of cooperation in the past. For instance, in 2003, CBRC as well as CSRC jointly instructed banks and asset managers to be more transparent in their pool of capital. However it still lacks results as banks tried to transfer out the capital by channeling to other companies.
Capital pool enterprise is closely linked to wealth management package for stocks and corporate bonds investment. CSRC allowed fund manager and broker to push and market wealth management package. CBRC followed suit for banks and CIRC launched similar wealth management package rules for insurance enterprises. Each regulator are doing their best on its own area of expertise. However unification is still yet to be implemented to standardize regulations in wealth management space.

 

Financial Pivot

  

Chinese New Year 2018

Chinese New Year 2018, Year of the Dog, is on Friday 16th February.

The home for trading financial activities and the venues for financial service providers, to take part in their activities is a “ Financial Centre”. The participants in this financial centers are Central Banks, Stock exchange, Financial intermediaries, etc. China's economy occupies a potent position globally in financial marketing, to meet the situation, several financial centres are strengthening their growth in the economy. The Vice president and the Chief Executive for Principal International, spoke recently with CIMB, Principal and gave an analysis stating that until 2003 China is not listed in the top twenties in World's Biggest Companies record, but that scenario was changed within a short period, and in the year 2009, five companies from China were added to the list. Fortunately, among those five companies, three companies are in the top five in the World's Biggest Companies list. This shows how tremendously China's economy is growing. The chief executive also stated that China is currently in the fifth position in the world in financial market. The chief executive with his experience expressed and highlighted that, China is following some growth models, with which it can contribute some percentage of its GDP to the growth. With this the demand for household goods increases, which results in the economic growth. He confidently stated that China will be in the leading position in its financial growth in upcoming years.

Structural Changes in growth model:
To reduce the regional disparities , growth needs to be more balanced in the economic development, where the comparison of the local and global and rising income inequalities may lead a rise in inflation. During the 2009 crisis, China remained strong with GDP growth as it is less dependent on its export markets. This made the remaining global markets to look at the Chine's growth model. The China's growth model report shows that there is a rise in the share of the investment in the government policies and a decline in private consumption. The reason for the fall in the share of GDP is high investment growth and weak employment growth ultimately resulted the labor income, further falls in national income and personal income. Both extreme levels made a fall in the share of GDP. In this situation the China took an active step by increasing the domestic consumption by generating employment opportunities and enhancing welfare, growth for its citizens and sequentially maintaining social stability. The consequences still worsened the China's economy for a short period.
Balancing the Economy by depending on Exports
China's re balancing growth at one level fell over 7% and 3% in the years 2007 and 2010 respectively. To some extent export and import played a recovery role, but only for a short period. When one compares the growth level of import and exports, the investment boom is strong and more for the export but it is lower than that of the import growth, the reason behind is China is weak in advanced country markets, this made the economy to absorb large amounts of China's imports. To adjust the economic imbalances China concentrated the foreign exchange markets to counter the growth imbalances. The statistical data says that in the year 2010, China accumulated nearly $448 billion of foreign exchange reserves. This trend continued in the 2011 first few months and it accumulated another $196 billion of foreign exchange reserves. On an average nearly $200 billion reserve accumulation was made by the economy in the next three quarter's highlights the Chinese Financial Centers and continued in the foreign exchange market.
Financial Development and Reforms
China's twelfth five-year plan gave more priority for the Financial development and reforms. In this contest China's government identified most effective financial system which can play an important role by bringing some of the changes like by increasing the production to reduce the inefficiencies in the market. China's introduced a reformed banking system and lend more small and medium sectors instead of large enterprises where there is less employment opportunities. This banking system worked wonders and there appeared a good development in the nonperforming loans, this significant change increased the assets. Secondly, China liberalized the interest rates as part in banking reforms. Currently the government imposed a ceiling on deposit rates. By analyzing all the areas if all the financial centers are regulatory and supervisory then China can lead a new global financial hub with Chinese characteristics.

 

China entrance as a global financial powerhouse

  

china maglev train

The World Bank kept its forecast in Dec 2017 for China's 2018 and 2019 GDP growth unchanged at 6.4 per cent and 6.3 per cent.

China's membership status for European Bank for Development (EBRD) has been approved on 14 of December back in 2015. China has been a longtime stakeholder in many global development financial institutions. The EBRD has a different focus which is to spur development in private sector and promoting market economy democracy. China is stamping its mark on world finance by gaining membership status in differing global institutions. The rise of China is happening which mirrors the higher responsibility undertaken by China in global economic policy drafting especially in Eastern Europe as well as North Africa as part of EBRD operational region. G-20 and China's role to tackle the world financial crisis has helped fortify the basis for approaching China. Asian Infrastructure Bank (AIIB) and New Bank of Development (NDB) is a shining example of new outward strategy taken by China. The Silk Road Funds is also set up for the same purpose for China's ambitious plans to utilize the immense space between Europe.

The combined capital of US$150 billion from both AIIB and NDB will not have far reaching impact in terms of funding for infrastructure for emerging economies and countries. A conservative estimate puts the figure between US$ 1 to 1.5 trillion every year. Silk Road Funds, China Development Institution and CITIC will need to pump more funds, but there will be unmet needs and there are plenty of space for more initiatives. The new strategy undertaken by China will influence its behavior in other existing institutions, especially regional institutions. China is becoming frustrated for not having achieved its objectives for increasing role in global world finance and institutions, such as World Bank and IMF. ADB fell short of China's expectations. AIIB is a major roadblock and challenge to ADB.
China's engagement in these institutions is not just restricted to Asian region. For many decades China has played larger roles in Africa. Many Chinese development banks are all signing up for programs launched by Africa Development Bank. PBOC and Africa Development Bank announced a US2 billion Africa Growing Fund Together, with disbursement tenure over 10 years jointly financed by the two regions. China signed up as a member for Inter-American Bank for Development in 2008. It marks the increasing influence of Chinese ties with Caribbean and Latin America region. It has made co-investment contribution to the development bank. China started as a small insignificant shareholder, similar to EBRD, where it holds a 0.004% stake. Since 1985 from its first year of membership, China took part in eight new rounds of funding for the Africa Development Fund. China now has a 2.052% stake in the latest fund.
China semi government linked institutions and corporations are stepping a gear to engage with global financial establishment. China national wealth fund called State Administration for Foreign Exchange pumped funds into a IFC's Asset Management Company. The objective is to attract long term equity from institutions. It is the major investor in EBRD's similar instrument. Debt capital arrangement for funding is being considered.
Many things are yet to be learned as mentioned by Governor for PBOC. China has many to learn from general development to investment experience. Public and private partnerships formed rapidly around the country have been an easy method to avoid borrowing limits for local government. EBRD can offer much experience for PPP and it is a leaning ground for China. While China is still observing from the start and learning all it could, it will someday have to face the harsh truth around global financial establishment. They are heavily scrutinized by public and political pressure, and China has to navigate cautiously due to many sensitive political issues surrounding the institutions.
Some fear the uprising of Chinese financial maneuvers in the world. Despite heavy engagement and higher voting power, China will not change radically its operations for existing institutions. China can actually learn more by co-operating with global financial establishment and strive to invest better internationally and be more efficient in its capital usage locally.

 

China Economic Growth

  

Li Keqiang

China's Prime Minister, Li Keqiang has been so sure about the growth of Economic of China this year will reach their target. He admitted there might be a little obstacle which will prevent their improvement. But he does believe that it is impossible with a projection that said China Economy will fail their target this year. He and his administration staff pretty confident that they will achieve 6,5 until 7 percent raise as their target. This is contrary to the fact that these years the economy of China has been weakening very fast than the expected, didn't like many years in the past, which make China easily reaching the target of Economic Growth. The numbers of 6,5 percent to 7 percent actually lower than their usual target as the second biggest economic growth rate. Usually, they reach for 10 percent growth. Mr. Li also consider the economic growth for the next five years for within the average of 6,5 percent.

This projection has made the policy maker to wiggle a little. This percentage has some little higher expectations than the experts has predicted. The Chief of Economist of China at UBS AG, which is a financial services company from Swiss, Wang Tao, has said in a Beijing seminar that this year China Economic will growth about 6,2 percent. The prime minister is pretty confident, though there's a fact that the largest economic growth for China in second place last year just reach 6,9 percent, which is the lowest rate for this 25 years.
Prime Minister Li Keqiang, on the annual legislative this year has said that it was the crucial period for China to find itself. And they have to build their powerful drivers to accelerate the development of this new economy.
According to the sources, China has increased a growth on its debt. And this is having been clarified by Prime Minister Li Keqiang. He said that the factor of which cause this to happen is the global economy and overcapacity, also a low on demand at the market, especially for steel and coal industry. They have recover slower than he expected from the global economy problem. But he said again that they already find a method to handle this situation. He proposed the best way to handle this situation is to nurture a supply side economy. This concept will let the manufacture and the services provider be more competitive, but also give its good quality.
As for the steel and coal industry problem, they made a policy to trim the factory overcapacity and cut the employee. Though so, they would not be neglected by the government. He said that they have to provide 100 billion yuan to help the employee who has been layoffs because of this policy until next two years. These funds are intended to pay their severance and to funds the retraining program. It is noted that this year will be 1,8 million employees to be layoffs around steel and coal company.
On his speech on the annual legislative also criticize about zombie enterprise, which is the unproductive industry which is kept alive by the subsidies and the loan. He said that government will handle it in an active method, but also wiser with the use of merger, debt restructure, reorganizations, and also bankruptcy liquidations. He has set 10 million jobs to be generated in urban areas, and he will hold the unemployment until below than 4,5 percent in city areas. He also places an 800 billion yuan to invest in a railway construction and 1,65 trillion yuan to build the roads. He has targeted the deficit of the budget as much as 3 percent of gross domestic product for this year, which is higher than last year for only 2,3 percent.

Changing of Economic Strategy and Timeline

  

singlesday

China is the worlds more populous nation, with it's capital in Beijing and population: 1.4 billion, currency: Renminbi, President: Xi Jinping. Chinese shoppers recently spent a record $25bn in Singles Day, the annual event for single people in China.
E-commerce giant Alibaba promoted the event held on 11 November and many companies offered big discounts for the 24 hour period. Singles Day is four times bigger than Cyber Monday and Black Friday, the US calendar shopping days.

Looking back on how we got here, previous China ambassador from Mexico, made a few comments and insights on the economic and political challenges facing China, drawing his expertise from Mexican history. Mexico and China have distinct differences but Mexican past economic history may give some useful template to gain a deeper understanding of China. Many analysts do not give enough coverage to Mexican history or other emerging nations' economic history.

Many people often take Japan and US as references to compare against China even as the countries have different political institutions. There are also vast different in the nations' wealth, both quantitatively and qualitatively. In accordance to IMF, US GDP per capita is 7.2 times more compared to China GDP per capita and US households income per capita is 11 times more compared to China household income per capita. Japan GDP per capita is 4.8 times more and household income per capita is 6 times more than China. Mexico GDP per capita is 1.4 times more and household income per capita is 2 times more than China.
China's strategy of rebalancing its economy is to close the differences between GDP per capita and household income per capita. There are some advancement in China's rebalancing strategy from the China consumption level. For the 1st three quarters in 2015, national income per capita for whole of China experienced a 7.7% growth. It was 0.1% higher compared to 1st half of 2015. Real GDP seems to be growing at 6.9% per year. Nominal GDP seems to be growing at 6.2%. This seems that household income per capita is growing faster than GDP, about 0.8% more. This is assuming growth in population is stagnant.
The rebalancing outcome is showing up the in the reversal of gap between household income growth and GDP growth. After many years where GDP growth far exceeds household income growth or consumption growth, reversal is important to enable consumption proportion of GDP to return to safe and healthy levels. However, the narrowing of gap is not fast enough to provide a meaningful balance when President Xi steps down at the end of his term in 2023. There are many ways to calculate household income proportion for GDP. There is no one best method. In accordance to established sources, household income as a % of GDP has hit bottom in 2011 at 41%.It is currently on the rise, which will reach 44% in 2014. Another estimate puts the share at 60% in 2011. There is definitely some discrepancy in the data.
If the household income is about 50% of GDP, the % will increase to 53% in 2023 with 8 years of GDP growth at 6.9% and household income growing at 7.7%. The level is only 3% higher and way below the modern day average. China will still be heavily reliant on foreign investment and surplus in its current account. It will take at least 25 years for household income to rise by 10% of GDP, which is the bare minimum for real rebalancing target.
It will take at least 10 to 15 years for sufficient adjustment to China's economy even the gap is closing at two times the speed. Its economy will only return to more sustainable growth with the scenario happening. Unless more radical economic policies are executed to fasten the household income growth and it consumption proportion of GDP, and unless more are being done to step up wealth transfer from state to household sector, we will not be able to see enough rebalancing for another 10 to 15 years.

 

  
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