Who’s really winning presidential race?

Editor’s Note: Sally Kohn is an activist, columnist and television commentator, and a supporter of Bernie Sanders. Follow her on Twitter: @sallykohn. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

In October 2007, the Gallup polling organization wrote that, “Gallup’s 2007 national presidential polling strongly points to [Hillary] Clinton winning the 2008 Democratic nomination. Barring something unusual or otherwise unexpected, she is well positioned for the 2008 Democratic primaries.” Gallup was wrong.

In June 2008, it wrote, “After winning one of the most competitive nomination battles in U.S. history, Barack Obama faces what looks to be an equally tough general election for the presidency.” Gallup’s polling had Obama and John McCain neck and neck, with McCain leading by a marginal point.

In November 2008, Barack Obama was elected president, winning 52.9% of the popular vote to McCain’s 45.7%.

US Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks at a campaign rally in Chicago in March 2019. Sanders, an independent from Vermont, is the longest-serving independent in the history of Congress.

Sanders, right, leads a sit-in organized by the Congress of Racial Equality in 1962. The demonstration was staged to oppose housing segregation at the University of Chicago. It was Chicago's first civil rights sit-in.

Sanders takes the oath of office to become the mayor of Burlington, Vermont, in 1981. He ran as an independent and won the race by 10 votes.

Sanders, right, tosses a baseball before a minor-league game in Vermont in 1984. US Sen. Patrick Leahy, center, was also on hand.

In 1987, Sanders and a group of Vermont musicians recorded a spoken-word folk album. "We Shall Overcome" was first released as a cassette that sold about 600 copies. When Sanders entered the US presidential race in 2015, the album surged in online sales. But at a CNN town hall, Sanders said, "It's the worst album ever recorded."

Sanders reads mail at his campaign office in Burlington in 1990. He was running for the US House of Representatives after an unsuccessful bid in 1988.

In 1990, Sanders defeated US Rep. Peter Smith in the race for Vermont's lone House seat. He won by 16 percentage points.

Sanders sits next to President Bill Clinton in 1993 before the Congressional Progressive Caucus held a meeting at the White House. Sanders co-founded the caucus in 1991 and served as its first chairman.

Barack Obama, then a US senator, endorses Sanders' Senate bid at a rally in Burlington in 2006.

Sanders takes part in a swearing-in ceremony at the US Capitol in January 2007. He won his Senate seat with 65% of the vote.

Sanders chats with Dr. John Matthew, director of The Health Center in Plainfield, Vermont, in May 2007. Sanders was in Plainfield to celebrate a new source of federal funding for The Health Center.

Sanders speaks to reporters in 2010 about the Obama administration's push to extend Bush-era tax cuts. Three days later, Sanders held a filibuster against the reinstatement of the tax cuts. His speech, which lasted more than eight hours, was published in book form in 2011. It is called "The Speech: A Historic Filibuster on Corporate Greed and the Decline of Our Middle Class."

Sanders and US Rep. Jeff Miller, chairman of the House Committee on Veterans' Affairs, walk to a news conference on Capitol Hill in 2014. Sanders was chairman of the Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs.

In March 2015, Sanders speaks in front of letters and petitions asking Congress to reject proposed cuts to Social Security and Medicare.

In July 2015, two months after announcing he would be seeking the Democratic Party's nomination for President, Sanders spoke to nearly 10,000 supporters in Madison, Wisconsin. "Tonight we have made a little bit of history," he said. "You may know that some 25 candidates are running for President of the United States, but tonight we have more people at a meeting for a candidate for President of the United States than any other candidate has."

Seconds after Sanders took the stage for a campaign rally in August 2015, a dozen protesters from Seattle's Black Lives Matter chapter jumped barricades and grabbed the microphone from the senator. Holding a banner that said "Smash Racism," two of the protesters -- Marissa Johnson, left, and Mara Jacqueline Willaford -- began to address the crowd.

Sanders shakes hands with Hillary Clinton at a Democratic debate in Las Vegas in October 2015. The hand shake came after Sanders' take on the Clinton email scandal. "Let me say something that may not be great politics, but the secretary is right -- and that is that the American people are sick and tired of hearing about the damn emails," Sanders said. "Enough of the emails, let's talk about the real issues facing the United States of America."

Sanders embraces Remaz Abdelgader, a Muslim student, during an October 2015 event at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. Asked what he would do about Islamophobia in the United States, Sanders said he was determined to fight racism and "build a nation in which we all stand together as one people."

Sanders waves while walking in a Veterans Day parade in Lebanon, New Hampshire, in November 2015.

Sanders sits with rapper and activist Killer Mike at the Busy Bee Cafe in Atlanta in November 2015. That evening, Killer Mike introduced Sanders at a campaign event in the city. "I'm talking about a revolutionary," the rapper told supporters. "In my heart of hearts, I truly believe that Sen. Bernie Sanders is the right man to lead this country."

Comedian Larry David and Sanders appear together on "Saturday Night Live" in February 2016. David had played Sanders in a series of sketches throughout the campaign season.

Sanders and his wife, Jane, wave to the crowd during a primary night rally in Concord, New Hampshire, in February 2016. Sanders defeated Clinton in the New Hampshire primary with 60% of the vote, becoming the first Jewish candidate to win a presidential primary.

Sanders speaks at a campaign rally in Ann Arbor, Michigan, in March 2016. He won the state's primary the next day, an upset that delivered a sharp blow to Clinton's hopes of quickly securing the nomination.

Sanders speaks at a campaign event in New York's Washington Square Park in April 2016.

Sanders speaks at a rally in Santa Monica, California, in June 2016. He pledged to stay in the Democratic race even though Clinton secured the delegates she needed to become the presumptive nominee.

Sanders endorses Clinton at a rally in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, in July 2016.

Sanders addresses delegates on the first day of the Democratic National Convention in July 2016.

Sanders brings a giant printout of one of Donald Trump's tweets to a Senate debate in January 2017. In the tweet, Trump had promised not to cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

Sanders thanks supporters after winning re-election to the Senate in November 2018.

Sanders looks at his notes as he watches President Trump deliver the State of the Union address in February 2019. That month, Sanders announced that he would be running for president again.

Sanders hugs a young supporter during a campaign rally in Los Angeles in March 2019.

Sanders addresses the audience at a CNN town hall in Washington in April 2019.

Sanders speaks next to former Vice President Joe Biden at the first Democratic debates in June 2019.

Sanders raises his fist as he holds a rally in Santa Monica, California, in July 2019.

Sanders grabs the hand of US Sen. Elizabeth Warren during the Democratic debates in Detroit in July 2019.

Sanders campaigns at the University of New Hampshire in September 2019. A few days later, he took himself off the campaign trail after doctors treated a blockage in one of his arteries. Sanders suffered a heart attack, his campaign confirmed.

US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduces Sanders at a New York rally after endorsing him for president in October 2019.

In a tense and dramatic exchange moments after a Democratic debate, Warren accused Sanders of calling her a liar on national television. Sanders responded that it was Warren who called him a liar. Earlier in the debate, the two disagreed on whether Sanders told Warren, during a private dinner in 2018, that he didn't believe a woman could win the presidency.

Sanders laughs during a primary-night rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, in February 2020. Sanders won the primary, just as he did in 2016.

A triumphant Sanders raises his fist in San Antonio after he was projected to win the Nevada caucuses.

Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden talk before a Democratic debate in Charleston, South Carolina, in February 2020.

Sanders addresses supporters during a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, in March 2020.

Sanders speaks to reporters in Burlington, Vermont, a day after Super Tuesday II. Sanders said it "was not a good night for our campaign from a delegate point of view" but that he looked forward to staying in the race and taking on Joe Biden in an upcoming debate.

Biden greets Sanders with an elbow bump before the start of a debate in Washington in March 2020. They went with an elbow bump instead of a handshake because of the coronavirus pandemic.

In photos: Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

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Polls are a lot of things. They’re gauges by which campaigns can adjust their media and organizing strategies. They’re invaluable fodder for the 24/7 news media to discuss during yearlong presidential campaigns. They’re a way for math geeks to seem sexy every four years.

But one thing polls are often not — especially months out from an election — is correct.

IN CNN IMAGES In the first Democratic debate, presidential candidate Bernie Sanders says people are sick of hearing about Hillary Clinton's "damn emails."

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Related video Sanders rejects notion he is damaging Clinton against Trump

Decent human beings who love their country and humanity and fear for the disastrous consequences of a Donald Trump presidency are shaken up by a series of new polls that show Trump and Clinton neck and neck in a national matchup. A Washington Post-ABC poll shows Trump leading Clinton 46% to 44%. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has Clinton leading Trump 46% to 43%. Both gaps are within the statistical margin of error, but still, the numbers are understandably disconcerting. That is, if you believe them.

Some Clinton supporters are using the polling to suggest that the presumptive nominee is being hurt by the prolonged primary battle with Bernie Sanders. Meanwhile, Sanders supporters point to national matchups that suggest Sanders is in a stronger position going head-to-head against Trump. Both points are valid, but again, only if you put too much weight on the polling.

In March 2008, 28% of Clinton supporters said they would vote for McCain if Obama were the nominee. And look how that turned out.

Hillary Clinton accepts the Democratic Party's nomination for president at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia on July 28, 2016. The former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state was the first woman to lead the presidential ticket of a major political party.

Before marrying Bill Clinton, she was Hillary Rodham. Here she attends Wellesley College in Massachusetts. Her commencement speech at Wellesley's graduation ceremony in 1969 attracted national attention. After graduating, she attended Yale Law School.

Rodham was a lawyer on the House Judiciary Committee, whose work led to impeachment charges against President Richard Nixon in 1974.

In 1975, Rodham married Bill Clinton, whom she met at Yale Law School. He became the governor of Arkansas in 1978. In 1980, the couple had a daughter, Chelsea.

Arkansas' first lady, now using the name Hillary Rodham Clinton, wears her inaugural ball gown in 1985.

The Clintons celebrate Bill's inauguration in Little Rock, Arkansas, in 1991. He was governor from 1983 to 1992, when he was elected President.

Bill Clinton comforts his wife on the set of "60 Minutes" after a stage light broke loose from the ceiling and knocked her down in January 1992.

In June 1992, Clinton uses a sewing machine designed to eliminate back and wrist strain. She had just given a speech at a convention of the International Ladies' Garment Workers Union.

During the 1992 presidential campaign, Clinton jokes with her husband's running mate, Al Gore, and Gore's wife, Tipper, aboard a campaign bus.

Clinton accompanies her husband as he takes the oath of office in January 1993.

The Clintons share a laugh on Capitol Hill in 1993.

Clinton unveils the renovated Blue Room of the White House in 1995.

Clinton waves to the media in January 1996 as she arrives for an appearance before a grand jury in Washington. The first lady was subpoenaed to testify as a witness in the investigation of the Whitewater land deal in Arkansas. The Clintons' business investment was investigated, but ultimately they were cleared of any wrongdoing.

The Clintons hug as Bill is sworn in for a second term as President.

The first lady holds up a Grammy Award, which she won for her audiobook "It Takes a Village" in 1997.

The Clintons dance on a beach in the U.S. Virgin Islands in January 1998. Later that month, Bill Clinton was accused of having a sexual relationship with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky.

Clinton looks on as her husband discusses the Monica Lewinsky scandal in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on January 26, 1998. Clinton declared, "I did not have sexual relations with that woman." In August of that year, Clinton testified before a grand jury and admitted to having "inappropriate intimate contact" with Lewinsky, but he said it did not constitute sexual relations because they had not had intercourse. He was impeached in December on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice.

The first family walks with their dog, Buddy, as they leave the White House for a vacation in August 1998.

President Clinton makes a statement at the White House in December 1998, thanking members of Congress who voted against his impeachment. The Senate trial ended with an acquittal in February 1999.

Clinton announces in February 2000 that she will seek the U.S. Senate seat in New York. She was elected later that year.

Clinton makes her first appearance on the Senate Environment and Natural Resources Committee.

Sen. Clinton comforts Maren Sarkarat, a woman who lost her husband in the September 11 terrorist attacks, during a ground-zero memorial in October 2001.

Clinton holds up her book "Living History" before a signing in Auburn Hills, Michigan, in 2003.

Clinton and another presidential hopeful, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, applaud at the start of a Democratic debate in 2007.

Obama and Clinton talk on the plane on their way to a rally in Unity, New Hampshire, in June 2008. She had recently ended her presidential campaign and endorsed Obama.

Obama is flanked by Clinton and Vice President-elect Joe Biden at a news conference in Chicago in December 2008. He had designated Clinton to be his secretary of state.

Clinton, as secretary of state, greets Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during a meeting just outside Moscow in March 2010.

The Clintons pose on the day of Chelsea's wedding to Marc Mezvinsky in July 2010.

In this photo provided by the White House, Obama, Clinton, Biden and other members of the national security team receive an update on the mission against Osama bin Laden in May 2011.

Clinton checks her Blackberry inside a military plane after leaving Malta in October 2011. In 2015, The New York Times reported that Clinton exclusively used a personal email account during her time as secretary of state. The account, fed through its own server, raises security and preservation concerns. Clinton later said she used a private domain out of "convenience," but admits in retrospect "it would have been better" to use multiple emails.

Clinton arrives for a group photo before a forum with the Gulf Cooperation Council in March 2012. The forum was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Obama and Clinton bow during the transfer-of-remains ceremony marking the return of four Americans, including U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens, who were killed in Benghazi, Libya, in September 2012.

Clinton ducks after a woman threw a shoe at her while she was delivering remarks at a recycling trade conference in Las Vegas in 2014.

Clinton, now running for President again, performs with Jimmy Fallon during a "Tonight Show" skit in September 2015.

Clinton testifies about the Benghazi attack during a House committee meeting in October 2015. "I would imagine I have thought more about what happened than all of you put together," she said during the 11-hour hearing. "I have lost more sleep than all of you put together. I have been wracking my brain about what more could have been done or should have been done." Months earlier, Clinton had acknowledged a "systemic breakdown" as cited by an Accountability Review Board, and she said that her department was taking additional steps to increase security at U.S. diplomatic facilities.

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders shares a lighthearted moment with Clinton during a Democratic presidential debate in October 2015. It came after Sanders gave his take on the Clinton email scandal. "The American people are sick and tired of hearing about the damn emails," Sanders said. "Enough of the emails. Let's talk about the real issues facing the United States of America."

Clinton is reflected in a teleprompter during a campaign rally in Alexandria, Virginia, in October 2015.

Clinton walks on her stage with her family after winning the New York primary in April.

After Clinton became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee, this photo was posted to her official Twitter account. "To every little girl who dreams big: Yes, you can be anything you want -- even president," Clinton said. "Tonight is for you."

Obama hugs Clinton after he gave a speech at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. The president said Clinton was ready to be commander in chief. "For four years, I had a front-row seat to her intelligence, her judgment and her discipline," he said, referring to her stint as his secretary of state.

Clinton arrives at a 9/11 commemoration ceremony in New York on September 11. Clinton, who was diagnosed with pneumonia two days before, left early after feeling ill. A video appeared to show her stumble as Secret Service agents helped her into a van.

Clinton addresses a campaign rally in Cleveland on November 6, two days before Election Day. She went on to lose Ohio -- and the election -- to her Republican opponent, Donald Trump.

After conceding the presidency to Trump in a phone call earlier, Clinton addresses supporters and campaign workers in New York on Wednesday, November 9. Her defeat marked a stunning end to a campaign that appeared poised to make her the first woman elected US president.

Hillary Clinton's life in the spotlight

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This is horse race season, so let’s use that analogy. Polls give a snapshot of the odds a given candidate faces at any moment, but they’re just odds. They’re not guarantees. And if you’ve ever watched a horse race, you’ve seen one horse look strong out of the gate only to fade by the end. Certainly the Republican primary this year bears out that analogy in the political realm.

So now, imagine there are just two horses left — one who opposes everything you and your ancestors have stood for in building this great nation, and one who maybe doesn’t share all your ideas and idealism but who you know would make an excellent leader on most of the issues you believe in. Once your horse is out of the race, duh! You’re going to cheer on that second horse. We all will. If that’s what happens.

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Related video Bernie Sanders ramps up feud with establishment

In the meantime, let Bernie run. Clinton supporters should be as understanding and magnanimous as Obama supporters were in 2008. Clinton wasn’t quick to quit even when the numbers looked stacked against her back then. And looking like you’re going to win isn’t the same as actually winning. Clinton owes it to her party and to Sanders supporters to let the campaign play out.

Sanders supporters already feel aggrieved (if not downright cheated) that they haven’t gotten a fair contest; Clinton and her supporters should be careful not to fan that anger by prematurely wrapping things up. And meanwhile, the Sanders campaign should run its own race rather than risk turning off supporters by antagonizing anyone who has legitimate questions about their strategy.

Sanders has every reason to stay in through California. If Sanders beats Clinton in California, it will elevate him significantly and raise serious questions about Clinton’s viability this late in the game. If Clinton beats Sanders, it will cement her position as the likely nominee.

President-elect Donald Trump has been in the spotlight for years. From developing real estate and producing and starring in TV shows, he became a celebrity long before winning the White House.

Trump at age 4. He was born in 1946 to Fred and Mary Trump in New York City. His father was a real estate developer.

Trump, left, in a family photo. He was the second-youngest of five children.

Trump, center, stands at attention during his senior year at the New York Military Academy in 1964.

Trump, center, wears a baseball uniform at the New York Military Academy in 1964. After he graduated from the boarding school, he went to college. He started at Fordham University before transferring and later graduating from the Wharton School, the University of Pennsylvania's business school.

Trump stands with Alfred Eisenpreis, New York's economic development administrator, in 1976 while they look at a sketch of a new 1,400-room renovation project of the Commodore Hotel. After graduating college in 1968, Trump worked with his father on developments in Queens and Brooklyn before purchasing or building multiple properties in New York and Atlantic City, New Jersey. Those properties included Trump Tower in New York and Trump Plaza and multiple casinos in Atlantic City.

Trump attends an event to mark the start of construction of the New York Convention Center in 1979.

Trump wears a hard hat at the Trump Tower construction site in New York in 1980.

Trump was married to Ivana Zelnicek Trump from 1977 to 1990, when they divorced. They had three children together: Donald Jr., Ivanka and Eric.

The Trump family, circa 1986.

Trump uses his personal helicopter to get around New York in 1987.

Trump stands in the atrium of the Trump Tower.

Trump attends the opening of his new Atlantic City casino, the Taj Mahal, in 1989.

Trump signs his second book, "Trump: Surviving at the Top," in 1990. Trump has published at least 16 other books, including "The Art of the Deal" and "The America We Deserve."

Trump and singer Michael Jackson pose for a photo before traveling to visit Ryan White, a young child with AIDS, in 1990.

Trump dips his second wife, Marla Maples, after the couple married in a private ceremony in New York in December 1993. The couple divorced in 1999 and had one daughter together, Tiffany.

Trump putts a golf ball in his New York office in 1998.

An advertisement for the television show "The Apprentice" hangs at Trump Tower in 2004. The show launched in January of that year. In January 2008, the show returned as "Celebrity Apprentice."

A 12-inch talking Trump doll is on display at a toy store in New York in September 2004.

Trump attends a news conference in 2005 that announced the establishment of Trump University. From 2005 until it closed in 2010, Trump University had about 10,000 people sign up for a program that promised success in real estate. Three separate lawsuits -- two class-action suits filed in California and one filed by New York's attorney general -- argued that the program was mired in fraud and deception. Trump's camp rejected the suits' claims as "baseless." And Trump has charged that the New York case against him is politically motivated.

Trump attends the U.S. Open tennis tournament with his third wife, Melania Knauss-Trump, and their son, Barron, in 2006. Trump and Knauss married in 2005.

Trump wrestles with "Stone Cold" Steve Austin at WrestleMania in 2007. Trump has close ties with the WWE and its CEO, Vince McMahon.

For "The Apprentice," Trump was honored with a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame in January 2007.

Trump appears on the set of "The Celebrity Apprentice" with two of his children -- Donald Jr. and Ivanka -- in 2009.

Trump poses with Miss Universe contestants in 2011. Trump had been executive producer of the Miss Universe, Miss USA and Miss Teen USA pageants since 1996.

In 2012, Trump announces his endorsement of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

Trump speaks in Sarasota, Florida, after accepting the Statesman of the Year Award at the Sarasota GOP dinner in August 2012. It was shortly before the Republican National Convention in nearby Tampa.

Trump appears on stage with singer Nick Jonas and television personality Giuliana Rancic during the 2013 Miss USA pageant.

In June 2015, during a speech from Trump Tower, Trump announced that he was running for President. He said he would give up "The Apprentice" to run.

Trump -- flanked by U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio, left, and Ted Cruz -- speaks during a CNN debate in Miami on March 10. Trump dominated the GOP primaries and emerged as the presumptive nominee in May.

The Trump family poses for a photo in New York in April.

Trump speaks during a campaign event in Evansville, Indiana, on April 28. After Trump won the Indiana primary, his last two competitors dropped out of the GOP race.

Trump delivers a speech at the Republican National Convention in July, accepting the party's nomination for President. "I have had a truly great life in business," he said. "But now, my sole and exclusive mission is to go to work for our country -- to go to work for you. It's time to deliver a victory for the American people."

Trump faces Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the first presidential debate, which took place in Hempstead, New York, in September.

Trump apologizes in a video, posted to his Twitter account in October, for vulgar and sexually aggressive remarks he made a decade ago regarding women. "I said it, I was wrong and I apologize," Trump said, referring to lewd comments he made during a previously unaired taping of "Access Hollywood." Multiple Republican leaders rescinded their endorsements of Trump after the footage was released.

Trump walks on stage with his family after he was declared the election winner on November 9. "Ours was not a campaign, but rather, an incredible and great movement," he told his supporters in New York.

Trump is joined by his family as he is sworn in as President on January 20.

Donald Trump's rise

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If that happens, perhaps Sanders would bow out of the race, but honestly, I can see a case to be made for him staying in through the convention. This way he could continue to elevate the concerns his campaign represents and push Clinton further to the left. But at that point Sanders should truly only stay in if he can walk and chew gum at the same time — that is, challenge the Democratic establishment at a more existential level while setting the stage to draw votes for the eventual Democratic nominee.

In any case, the defensive and even nasty tone we’ve seen in recent days from some Sanders supporters, and at times the candidate himself, has undermined the spirit of nonviolent progressive revolution they started with.

Ultimately when this ends, it must end gracefully. Nobody likes a sore loser. Or a sore winner. And in the meantime, let’s keep the Democratic primary substantive and civil. Not only because it reflects the party’s core values but because it offers the strongest contrast with the vacuous immaturity of the other side.

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Sally Kohn is an activist, columnist and television commentator, and a supporter of Bernie Sanders. Follow her on Twitter: @sallykohn. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.