Japanese leader sets 2020 deadline for changing pacifist constitution

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Wednesday he aims to have his country’s pacifist constitution revised and a new version in effect by 2020.

It’s the first time Abe has put a clear time frame on revising the constitution, which contains language that bans Japan from maintaining armed forces.

The Japanese military is known as the Self-Defense Forces, but Abe said there is a contradiction between the constitution and the existence of the SDF.

“I believe that we must establish the status of the SDF explicitly in the constitution during our generation’s lifetime and leave no room for contending the SDF could be unconstitutional,” Abe said in a video message to a Tokyo forum marking the 70th anniversary of the constitution. “I strongly wish to make 2020 the year that the reborn Japan will make a new start.”

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Published 9:34 AM EDT, Wed May 3, 2017

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Cosmetic changes

Japan’s current constitution came into effect in 1947 after its defeat by allied forces in World War II. Article 9 of the document says that “land, sea and air forces, as well as other war potential will never be maintained.”

Abe’s proposed changes are essentially symbolic, said Corey Wallace, a Japan security expert at Freie University in Berlin.

“It would be a cosmetic change in terms of actual implications for Japan’s defense posture,” he said.

Japan Self-Defense Force tanks and other armored vehicles take part in an exercise at the military's East Fuji Maneuver Area on August 25, 2016, in Gotemba, Japan. Japan has one tank division and three armored infantry divisions.

Members of the the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force attend the annual review at the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force Camp Asaka on October 23, 2016. Japan has 151,000 soldiers in its Ground Self-Defense Force.

Japanese Air Self-Defense Force maintainers pose for a photo November 28, 2106, during the arrival of the first Japanese F-35A at Luke Air Force Base Arizona. The F-35 will give Japan a fifth-generation fighter.

Air servicemen of the Japan Self-Defense Force walk past a F-15J/DJ fighter aircraft (L) and a F-2 A/B fighter aircraft (R) on a runway prior to a review ceremony at the Japan Air Self-Defense Force's Hyakuri air base in Omitama, Ibaraki prefecture on October 26, 2014. Japan has 552 combat capable aircraft.

Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force guided-missile destroyer JS Ashigara, front, and the US Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Barry patrol in the Philippine Sea. The US alliance is a key to Japan military strength.

Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force escort ship Kurama leads other ships during a fleet review off Sagami Bay, Kanagawa prefecture, on October 18, 2015. Japan has 47 surface combatants.

Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces submarines are moored at a pier in Kure, Hiroshima prefecture on April 12, 2016. Japan has 18 submarines.

Japanese helicopter carrier Ise, one of Japan's biggest warships, is towed as it prepares to dock at the former US naval base at Subic Bay, Philippines, on April 26, 2016.

A Japanese LCAC (Landing Craft Air Cushion) hovercraft from the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force ship JS Hyuga during the Dawn Blitz 2015 exercise off the coast of Southern California on September 3, 2015. Japan is developing amphibious forces that can retake Pacific islands.

A look at Japan's Self-Defense Forces

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But changing the constitution “could symbolically represent a Japan that is willing to adapt to developments around it and not burdened by the past,” Wallace told CNN.

Despite its constitution, Japan maintains one of the world’s strongest militaries, analysts say.

“Pilot for pilot, ship for ship, Japan can stand toe to toe with anybody,” John T. Kuehn, a professor of military history at the US Army Command and General Staff College, told CNN last year.

North Korean threat

Abe’s comments come at a time when Japan’s forces are increasingly in the spotlight as they participate in exercises with the United States and other allies in response to North Korean threats.

Recent North Korean missile tests have landed in the waters off Japan, and in March state-run Korean Central News Agency said units conducting the drills were “tasked to strike the bases of the US imperialist aggressor forces in Japan.”

Since then, Japanese destroyers have joined exercises with the American aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson and its strike group, which North Korea vowed to sink.

This week, Japan’s largest warship, the helicopter carrier Izumo, escorted a US naval supply ship that could be used to refuel US Navy warships operating with the Vinson, according to Japanese media.

And last month, Abe said Japan could become a target for North Korean missiles carrying warheads filled with sarin gas.

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Published 9:34 AM EDT, Wed May 3, 2017

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“The security situation around our country is getting increasingly severe,” Abe said in mid-April, referring to the North Korean threat.

But analysts say Japan is in a good position to deal with any potential attack from Pyongyang.

The pacifist constitution has helped make its military as formidable as it is because to this point it has only had to concentrate on defensive operations, they say.

But they add the current situation in north Asia has exposed a weakness – Japan lacks some of the hardware necessary for it to counterattack alone if North Korean missiles were to strike.

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Published 9:34 AM EDT, Wed May 3, 2017

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“They can bomb anyone landing on one of Japan’s main islands … but they can’t strike Chinese or North Korean air bases or missile sites,” said Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center.

Schuster points out that Japanese warplanes don’t carry the equipment necessary to suppress enemy air defenses. “They can defend, but they can’t punch back,” he said.

Before the constitution can be amended, the revision must be proposed by two-thirds of the members of each chamber of Japan’s parliament and must be approved by a majority of voters in a referendum.