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In Gallup’s new weekly poll released Monday, Trump’s approval rating had cooled off to 41% while his disapproval shot up 5 percentage points – up to 55%. It’s easy to ascribe Trump’s approval fade to his disastrous past week in which he badly underestimated the damage done by his administration’s “zero-tolerance” policy at the border. Trump eventually flip-flopped on his insistence that an executive order wouldn’t solve the family separation crisis but, even then, legal and logistical questions remained.
But in truth, Trump’s 41% approval could well be simply a return to normal. After all, Trump has averaged 39% approval in Gallup polling for the totality of his presidency to date. Trump’s numbers among Republicans remain strong (90% approval last week, 87% this week) and his numbers among Democrats remain dismal (10% approval last week, 5% this week).
Seen through that lens, Trump’s numbers last week are the exception; his numbers this week are the rule.? And?it’s not totally clear how Republicans should feel about that fact.?
On the one hand, Republicans remain?extremely positive about Trump – usually a sign the base of the party is activated and ready for the fall elections. On the other, the history of presidents under 50% approval in a midterm election is absolutely disastrous for the GOP. The average loss for the party in power is 36 House seats!
Trump’s 45% showing last week had given some Republicans hopes?that he might, maybe, make it close to 50% approval before November. Those hopes seem to have been short-lived.?If you believe Gallup’s long-term trend – and you should – the most likely place for Trump to wind up in November is somewhere between 39% and 42% in approval.
The Point: Trump is Trump. For every step forward there is (at least) one step back. Republicans need to just make peace with that reality.
