Editor’s Note: Jane Merrick is a British political journalist and former political editor of the Independent on Sunday newspaper. The opinions expressed in this commentary are hers.
There are now 100 days to go until the United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union, and Theresa May is no closer to securing parliamentary backing for the terms of Brexit.
If that approval never comes, Britain leaves the EU on March 29 without a deal: There would be no customs arrangements with its closest neighbors and trading partners; The normally free-flowing supply routes from Europe into the UK for food, medicine and other essential goods and services would become blocked; British citizens living and working in the EU would lose their legal status.
It would, by any sensible prediction, have a severe impact on the daily lives of everyone in the country from the moment they wake up on March 30. This fast-looming deadline has suddenly motivated the Prime Minister and her Cabinet into launching contingency plans so the country will be able to cope. Yet the government has, surely, acted too late – 14 weeks is not enough time to put in place the infrastructure needed for the UK to go onto an emergency footing.
The problem with May’s decision to order no-deal contingency planning so late in the day is that it is being seen as a politically motivated ruse to get members of Parliament, or MPs, to back her Brexit deal, agreed to last month by EU leaders. By dismissing suggestions for other alternative plans, such as a model based on Norway’s relationship with the EU, the Prime Minister is indeed forcing Parliament to choose between her plan or no deal. The opposition Labour Party say it’s not going to fall for it, describing the sudden implementation of no-deal contingencies as a “political hoax.”
And yet the entire story of Brexit can be told through the misconceived idea that the least likely option will never happen. In the run-up to the 2016 referendum, the polls, the media and politicians all predicted the country would vote to remain in the EU – and were stunned when 17.4 million people voted to leave.
The Northern Ireland backstop was put into the Brexit withdrawal agreement only as an “insurance policy” to prevent a hard border in Ireland in the unlikely event a trade deal between the UK and EU could not be reached – and yet it has become the most contentious part of the Brexit negotiations, around which British politics now revolves and which triggered a confidence vote in the Prime Minister of her own MPs.
Now, we are told that these no-deal plans are only there for contingencies, for the worst-case scenario. The problem is, this worst-case scenario might also become the most likely scenario, unless MPs from all parties take it seriously. Dismissing no deal as a “hoax” is dangerous, when the consequences for medicines, food and public order could be catastrophic.
A coalition of five business groups warned on Wednesday that the “point of no return” was about to be reached before it would become impossible to cope with a no-deal Brexit. They said: “Businesses have been watching in horror as politicians have focused on factional disputes rather than practical steps … businesses would face massive new customs costs and tariffs. Disruption at ports could destroy carefully built supply chains.”
Brussels, the effective EU capital, has launched its own plans for a no deal that include severe restrictions on flights between the UK and EU. Planes inbound and outbound from the UK would be able to stop for refueling, but British airlines would no longer be able to operate services between cities within the EU, which would hit UK firms like easyJet. There would also be severe restrictions on British road haulers traveling inside the EU.
What’s more, Brussels will not allow what some Conservative MPs are calling for as an alternative to May’s plan, a “managed no deal,” because emergency contingency measures would end after nine months.
But it is nonsensical to think that, even with the no-deal contingency plans being put in place by both the EU and the UK, there wouldn’t be major disruption for Britain after March 29 – because the government has not left enough time to put in place the infrastructure and policies to stop that happening. Last month, Chancellor Philip Hammond said a few months was not enough time to plan for a no deal – that minimizing its worst disruption would take years.
The health secretary, Matt Hancock, said his department was buying up fridges to store six weeks of stockpiled medicines to keep the National Health Service in supply. Yet, will that be enough to prevent doctors running out, particularly given that the health service is already facing winter pressures and staff shortages?
Even if the no-deal announcements are part of a strategy of brinkmanship by May to force through her unpopular Brexit deal, they should be taken seriously – because the alternative would be a disaster for the UK. But if a no-deal scenario does happen on March 29, nobody should be under any illusions that it will be an easy ride.