Editor’s Note: Lincoln Mitchell teaches in the political science department at Columbia University. His most recent book is “San Francisco Year Zero: Political Upheaval Punk Rock and a Third Place Baseball Team.” (Rutgers University Press, 2019) Follow him on Twitter @LincolnMitchell. The opinions expressed here are his own. Read more opinion at CNN.
Joe Biden showed American voters on Tuesday that he’s a smart politician. The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, standing in front of an American flag, gave a speech demonstrating once that while he may not be an inspiring orator, he knows how to hit all the right notes.
Biden acknowledged the terrible impact Covid-19 has had on the US, expressed empathy for those who have lost family or friends, scoffed at Donald Trump, “our wartime President who has left the battlefield,” and “puts everything in terms of him” in his refusal to wear a mask. “The president talks about, you know, manhood and, you know, and being strong, and you don’t need the mask.”
The former vice president went on to accuse the current President of dereliction of duty for his lack of response to intelligence reports that Moscow was offering bounties to the Taliban for killing US and other coalition soldiers in Afghanistan.
This was not the kind of soaring rhetoric that Democrats have seen from President Barack Obama or, for an earlier generation, former New York Governor Mario Cuomo, but it was solid. Not a home run, but a single up the middle. It highlighted Biden’s core strengths, showcasing the decades of experience that enabled him to quickly win the support of his former Democratic rivals after they dropped out of the race in February and March.
His Tuesday speech showed it by offering practical, even commonsense ideas about the virus to a country that appears to want useful leadership at this difficult time. “Wear a mask. It’s not just about you. It’s about your family. It’s about your neighbors. It’s about your colleagues. It’s about keeping other people safe,” is not exactly Churchillian, but it is good advice right now.
Biden’s other major political asset that came across in today’s speech was his temperament. He may not be the most dynamic speaker or the most innovative policy thinker, but he strikes many Americans, rightly, as basically a decent and moderate man. This not only provides a, thus far, winning contrast with Trump, but also helps inoculate Biden against future attacks for extremist views.
In a recent interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity, Trump himself acknowledged that “I don’t think Biden is the radical left.” Biden’s essentially restrained temperament was evident throughout his Wilmington speech, but particularly in his comments about why the government must protect statues of historical figures like George Washington and Thomas Jefferson.
These skills have contributed to the lead Biden has opened up against Trump in almost all recent polls. If the campaign continues like this, it is very likely they will help carry Biden into the White House. This is good news for Democrats and others who would like to see the Trump era wind down this January. The bad news for the Democrats is that the election is still slightly more than four months away and a smart Trump campaign could change this.
For Trump, the strategy itself is not all that complicated. As any political consultant would likely tell him, the fastest way to turn his campaign around would be to campaign less to his base and focus more on those voters who either have not yet made up their minds or are only loosely committed to Biden. This is obvious, but Trump’s failure to do this is extraordinary. Trump’s tweets, public statements and responses to everything from the Covid-19 pandemic to racial unrest seem crafted to excite the 40% who say they support him rather than to bump that number up to 50%.
Take Trump’s recent rally in Tulsa. While much was made in the media of the poor turnout at the rally, the larger question – the purpose of the rally – was mostly ignored. Political rallies, particularly Trump’s, speak almost entirely to the committed, so even if the rally had been well attended it would have accomplished little other than to highlight Trump’s enduring popularity with his die-hard supporters.
Trump’s strategists could tell him it would be wise to do no more rallies for a while and instead seek to present himself as a president working hard at a difficult time. That would free his campaign team to focus on communications through television, social media, direct mail and other media aimed at specific groups of swing voters. Ads and messages aimed at persuading voters that Trump was a good pre-Covid-19 steward of the economy who could help the US recover after a vaccine is found, that his tax reform put money in American people’s hands or that he has strengthened America’s military are more likely to win over swing voters than another rally featuring the President being what could charitably described as off-message.
But there is little evidence that Trump has the capacity for this type of campaign. Trump always seems to need to be at the center of every story. He consistently makes comments and sends tweets that become damaging news and has not demonstrated a real ability to speak fluently on any issue, with the possible exception of the stock market. He typically responds to news he does not like with disbelief and anger at whoever bears that news and by firing advisers who dare to disagree with him. This is evident in his personal attacks on reporters and their outlets and even in recent comments about Fox News, a network that is usually friendly to the president, when it reported polls that show Trump behind Biden, as well as in Trump’s dismissive treatment of one-time powerful members of the administration like James Mattis and Rex Tillerson. (Biden, by contrast, made a point of being warm and gracious to journalists questioning him on Tuesday.)
Trump’s characteristics which, despite the occasional retraction of an unwise retweet, seem immutable, making him unlikely to follow simple campaign advice. And that may allow Biden’s temperament and political skills to get him over the top in November.