A ‘blue wall’ victory is not complete without Omaha’s blue dot

The battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania may be pivotal in the race for the White House, but winning those blue wall states alone do not guarantee a campaign victory without something else: Omaha’s blue dot.

Yard signs with blue circles have begun appearing on lawns across town here, a hopeful symbol for Democrats in a sea of Nebraska red, with one of the state’s lone electoral votes likely critical for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in the closing two months of the campaign.

“It’s plausible that we could have a tie,” said Jason Brown, who started making the signs last week in a show of his support for Harris. “The whole notion of ‘my vote doesn’t matter’ really gets tossed out the window. This could be it. This could be a deciding factor.”

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that award electoral votes by congressional district, rather than by statewide winner. Republicans have long sought to change the law here – so far, without success – but for Democrats, it’s a point of pride. Barack Obama in 2008 and Joe Biden in 2020 are the party’s only two candidates to reap a single electoral vote reward.

The Harris campaign and?its?Democratic allies are investing millions here to follow suit.

“It’s starting conversations. People are like, what’s the blue dot?” said Ruth Huebner-Brown, who joined her husband?in?making and distributing the blue dot signs around Omaha. “That’s the important part, because as soon as you start the conversation, you have a full conversation.”

For all of the pathways for Harris and Trump to reach the White House, the race for 270 electoral votes could come down to Nebraska’s sprawling 2nd?District covering Omaha and parts of two nearby counties, which hold many similarities to suburban areas across the country.

Here’s why: If Harris carries the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and Trump wins?the?sunbelt states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, the race could become a 269-269 tie, decided by the House of Representatives. A single electoral college vote in Nebraska could change that, providing no other states deliver surprising results.

Trump benefitted from the system in Maine, a blue state, where he won a single electoral college vote in 2016 and 2020 despite losing statewide. Democrats are less optimistic about a Maine sweep, party officials say, than winning one of Nebraska’s electoral votes.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz speaks during a campaign visit to his home state in Omaha, Nebraska, on August 17, 2024.

A not-so-secret weapon for Democrats could be Tim Walz, who was born and raised here before moving two states over to Minnesota, where he was elected to Congress and is serving his second term as governor. Even though he?is?hardly a familiar name to many Nebraska voters, the pride came alive for many Democrats when Harris tapped him as her running mate?last month.

“People have pride in that, absolutely,” said Ashlei Spivey, recalling conversations with voters as she knocks on doors in Omaha in her campaign for a statehouse seat. “Once a Nebraskan, always a Nebraskan, and that does not change. People are super excited to say look what we helped produce.”

Nebraska state Sen.?Tony Vargas believes the Harris-Walz ticket will also help Democrats win control of Congress – starting with his race for the?2nd District, which is among the country’s most competitive.

“We have suburban, we have rural, we have urban, we have all different walks of life, you know, all different races, ethnicity, socioeconomics,” Vargas said. “Really, this is a truly independent place.”

Republican Rep. Don Bacon has thrived – and survived politically for nearly a decade – because of that independent streak of the district and increasingly rare ticket-splitters. Trump won here in 2016, but lost in 2020.

Bacon said Trump runs the risk of losing again, if he doesn’t focus on inflation, immigration and other top concerns of voters.

“When you talk about DEI, race, coming up with nicknames, that doesn’t play well in this district,” Bacon said. “They want to talk about the issues. This is an issue district.”

Delegates from Nebraska stand for the National Anthem on the first day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on July 15, 2024.

‘It can change right up until Election Day’

For months, Trump and his Republican allies have sought to change the Nebraska law?that awards electoral votes by congressional district?and implement statewide winner-take-all rules. The effort failed during the regular session of the legislature, which ended in the spring. Attempts to call a special session to take up the measure have not materialized because of a lack of sufficient support to overcome a Democratic filibuster.

“I never count anything out. We’re being very watchful and mindful of whether or not it happens,” said Vargas, a state senator completing his term and running for Congress. “It can change right up until Election Day, theoretically.”

For now, the Trump campaign and Republicans are working to defeat Harris in a district that extends through Omaha’s western suburbs to rural towns like Wahoo, where Stephen and Sonja Peetz said they are ready for change in the White House – a change back to Trump.

“I appreciated his stand on immigration. The economy was better. Prices were lower,” Stephen Peetz said after stopping for a cup of morning coffee at a downtown café. “I had more confidence in the last administration. In the last three and a half years, I have lost confidence.”

His wife, Sonja, added of the former president: “I don’t think I appreciate him much as a person, but I appreciate his policies. It’s not the person that I’m voting for, it’s what he’s done for the country in the past, his history, and what he’s done as far as our economy.”

They both question what Harris stands for and are not sold on Walz, no matter where he grew up.

While Trump is expected to carry the statewide vote in Nebraska by a wide margin – he won about 58% in 2016 and 2020 – it’s an open question how much he intends to compete in the competitive 2nd?District. Trump signs dot the roadside, but his campaign and allies have spent only a few thousand dollars in advertising?here.

Democrats, meanwhile, are dominating spending in the key Omaha media market. Since Harris?rose to the top of the Democratic ticket?in July, her campaign has spent just under $1 million advertising here, according to a CNN analysis of AdImpact data, while a few allied outside groups have spent about $600,000 more.

Going forward, Democrats are also poised to have a big advertising advantage. The party has $7.8 million in future bookings here, according to AdImpact data, with more than $1 million in airtime booked per week for the final month of the race. The future bookings are split about evenly between the Harris campaign, $3.7 million, and its top allied super PAC, $3.9 million.

In the Dundee neighborhood of midtown Omaha, the blue dot signs are in such high demand, Jason Brown ran out of spray paint and white signs. A fresh order came in late Tuesday, but he said orders are stacking up – not only from Democrats, but from independents who could help decide the election.

“It doesn’t mean, ‘Oh my God, I’ve become a Democrat,’” Brown said of his pitch to undecided voters. “No, you’re voting for what you feel is right for the future, whether it’s for the next four years or for your children or grandchildren after that.”