This situation here today is Monday, 6th May is now 6 p.m..

This is a doctor in Rafah, in southern Gaza. And when he sent us this voice note on Monday, it was not long after Israel's military had dropped leaflets on the eastern part of the city telling residents to get out.

The people, they are living in the tent, they are waiting to face their destiny...

The leaflets were a sign that the long talked about ground offensive into Rafah would begin soon.

No words can really describe how crowded Rafah is these days. If you really walk into the street, you can't find a spot to stop and for even a minute.

The problem with that, as this English teacher named Ahmad explains it, where else was there to go? Over a million Palestinians are sheltering there, already displaced from their homes by Israel's bombing campaign.

There are hundreds of families. Maybe thousands of people are pouring into the eastern, the western parts of it now, from the eastern parts where an invasion is imminent there.

Imagine it, an already overcrowded population just squeezing into an even smaller area in that same city. Well, a few hours after those leaflets fell to the ground, that fear and expectation of a ground incursion had given way to something else.

*people cheering*

Well big news just in to CNN. Hamas says that it has agreed to a ceasefire proposal from Egypt and Qatar.

That hostage release and cease fire deal we've been talking about for weeks. Seemed like it was about to become a reality. You know. But like we've seen so many times before, the reality of the situation is much more complicated.

This doesn't mean that it's the all out ground offensive that Israel has been threatening. It could, however, be the first stage of one. And I think how these negotiations unfold over the coming days will determine whether or not the Israeli military stops at this or whether they go further.

Today, what we know about what's actually happening in Rafah and why a cease fire deal for now remains just out of reach from CNN, this is Tug of War. I'm David Rind. CNN's Jeremy Diamond is back with us. He's in Jerusalem right now. Jeremy, the last few days of honestly been like a little head spinning as far as the developments are concerned. So as we sit here on Tuesday afternoon, Middle East time, can you take us through where we are right now?

Yeah, it's really remarkable how much has happened over the course of the last day or so. I mean, it began early Monday morning, with the Israeli military dropping thousands of fliers over eastern Rafah, ordering people to evacuate about 100,000 people who were going to be displaced, many of them for the second or third or even fourth time. Right.

This is CNN breaking news.

And this has the potential to be very, very big breaking news.

After those evacuation orders went out. We then learned in a very bold and sudden and unexpected statement from Hamas that they had agreed, they said, to a cease fire proposal. And the immediate question we asked was, which cease fire proposal are they talking about?

Right. There's so many versions.

That's right. And we know that over the course of the last week and a half or so, there has been this Egyptian framework on the table, which was crafted with significant Israeli input, almost tacit approval from Israel. But what we later learned, hours after Hamas's statement, was that Hamas has not actually agreed to that very same framework proposal. In fact, there are, there are several key differences in these proposals. The foremost among which is this idea that Hamas in this proposal is calling for an end to the war altogether in the second phase of this agreement, and wants Israel to explicitly agree to that which has been somewhat of a red line for the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. We know that there are other key differences as well. But effectively, this is a reworked version of that original Egyptian framework. And Israel at this stage is saying that this new framework proposal that Hamas has agreed to does not meet Israel's core demands. So negotiations are going to continue. This is certainly a critical moment. There is certainly still a sense of momentum behind all of this. But amid all of this, Israel is choosing to move forward with military operations in Rafah.

Right. I want to ask about that. So do we think that initial threat of military actions, like those leaflets that came down, orders to evacuate, did that have any influence on Hamas coming out and making a big show, saying, yes, we accept this deal?

You know, it's really not clear at this stage how much of an impact that actually had. The timing, of course, is quite notable, but it could be a coincidence. I mean, we do know, though, that the threat of a Rafah offensive, one that has grown increasingly real over the course of the last week or two, certainly was hanging over the negotiations. It was pushing the Egyptians to try and mediate harder to try and get Hamas to a deal. And it also pushed Hamas to engage more, more seriously. And Israeli officials, who I've been talking to over the course of the last couple of weeks have basically said, look, this Rafah offensive has been delayed time and again because we want to give space to these negotiations. But yesterday morning, things seemed like they were at a standstill. And and that's when the Israeli military decided to move forward with this, these evacuation orders. And then hours later that evening to move forward with this operation.

Well, what does the operation look like now as we sit? There's been a lot of fears about a full scale ground incursion, but it sounds to me like there's a lot going on.

Yeah. The Israeli military now says that they have, quote unquote, operational control of the Rafah border crossing. It's not clear how long they're going to maintain that operational control for. But this is the first time that we have seen Israeli tanks and troops moving into Rafah after months of threats to do so.

So they're in there.

They are in there.

*Tank revving*

They are inside of Rafah in eastern Rafah, the very same area where the Israeli military directed people to leave. The military claims that the vast majority of people left eastern Rafah as those orders were, were dropped. But this doesn't mean that it's the all out ground offensive that Israel has been threatening. It could, however, be the first stage of one. And I think how these negotiations unfold over the coming days will determine whether or not the Israeli military stops at this or whether they go further.

Yeah. And it seems like for the Palestinians that are there, though, that seems like a difference, kind of without a distinction. Like it's still terrifying.

Absolutely. And it's terrifying not only for people in eastern Rafah, there was a sense of fear and anxiety spreading beyond eastern Rafah to other parts of the city, and that's one of the big concerns from humanitarian aid officials is even as the Israeli military says, that they have set up an expanded humanitarian zone north of Rafah. Aid officials warned that if hundreds of thousands of people start flooding away from Rafah all at once to those areas, those areas will quickly be overwhelmed. They will not have the resources to adequately support that number of people. In addition to that, at this stage we now have the Rafah border crossing, which is currently closed. This has been a lifeline for hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. It is the only place that aid workers are able to get in and out from. It's the only place where Palestinians are able to be medically evacuated to Egypt and to other countries. And at this stage, the Rafah border crossing is closed. The Kerem Shalom Crossing, as we're speaking right now, also remains closed because of, Hamas, mortar and rocket attack on that position a couple of days ago that killed four Israeli soldiers. But the bottom line is that right now, two of the main crossing points for aid to get into Gaza are closed. And we've heard the UN secretary general raising enormous concerns about that. And certainly if they are not reopened quickly, you will start seeing serious impacts on the ground.

Or with Jeremy. And just a bit. Welcome back to Tug of War and my conversation with CNNs Jeremy Diamond. So from the Israeli side, it's clear that they're not going to wait for a deal to be finalized before they start up in Rafah. They kind of already have. So I guess I'm wondering, like, is there an incentive for them to have a deal, or is there a world where no deal also suits Netanyahu's needs? Like I'm trying to figure out where all this pressure is going to triangulate to?

Yeah. I mean, that is that is kind of the core of the issue here. Does Netanyahu really want a deal? Does Yahia Sinwar, Hamas's leader in Gaza, really want a deal, or do they both benefit from this war going on? That that is certainly, a question and a perspective that some have a rather cynical one, but one that is certainly within the realm of possibility. I mean, you have to keep in mind that Benjamin Netanyahu, at this stage, he is being propped up by a right wing governing coalition that wants the war to continue. At the same time, he's also facing other pressures from the members of his war cabinet, like Benny Gantz, like in court, who have stressed, that while they are in support of this war continuing, they are in support of a rough operation continuing for the time being. They also believe that a hostage deal, a good one, should be prioritized over, over the war aims. So. So there are a lot of different pressure points. And it's not clear at this stage, which one of those will win out on, on Benjamin Netanyahu's thinking.

Yeah. And another pressure point, of course, coming from the US, who has long been saying that they won't support a full military operation into Rafah. So, you know, as we kind of see more military activity there, what does that look like in terms of how the U.S. continues to support this war? Like, can you game out for me few weeks down the line if it continues? Like, does the U.S. pull ammunition shipments, like, like what kind of impact could it have on the actual fighting?

We don't know exactly how they will react. What we do know is that the US and President Biden have made clear that a major ground offensive in Rafah would be some kind of a red line, but but it's pretty fuzzy on where exactly that red line is. Yeah.

We've made clear our views about operations in Rafah that could potentially put more than a million innocent people at greater risk. During his call with Prime Minister Netanyahu. The president again made this clear...

The president at one point said that an offensive in and of itself would be a red line. His administration officials have suggested that it's more about making sure that there is a feasible plan to safely get civilians out of harm's way, and they've also said that they haven't actually seen the details of such a plan that meets those requirements at this stage. What they also haven't done is outlined what kind of consequences Israel would face for crossing that red line, as blurry as it may be.

You know, a month ago, the administration did make clear that the U.S. would change its approach, right, if Israel didn't take significant steps to address the humanitarian crisis. Does that still hold? Is it possible that the U.S. could change course if communitarian process isn't improved?

Of course, we always know. We always have the right to adjust our policies as appropriate. And that has not changed, no.

And presumably, an operation in Rafah would jeopardize steps to address the humanitarian crisis.

All I can say is we've been very direct and very consistent in our views of concerns about operations in Rafah.

This is an administration that has certainly ramped up its criticism of the Israeli government, of its handling of the war in Gaza. The rhetoric has heated up, but we have yet to actually see many firm, tangible actions. And certainly the president hasn't committed yet to tying military support, weapons shipments, other foreign aid to Israel, to its actions in the Gaza Strip. For now, it's been almost entirely rhetoric, right?

So kind of a complicated moment in terms of that support and where this all goes from here. Jeremy.

Thank you. Thanks, David.

Tug of War is a production of CNN Audio. This episode was produced by Paola Ortiz and me, David Rind. Our senior producer is Haley Thomas, Dan Dzula is our technical director. And Steve Lickteig is the executive producer of CNN Audio. We get support from Alex Manasseri, Robert Mathers, John Dianora, Leni Steinhart, Jamus Andrest, Nichole Pesaru, and Lisa Namerow. Special thanks to Caroline Patterson, Seb Shukla and Katie Hinman. We'll be back on Friday. I'll talk to you then.