Boris Johnson is a favorite among Conservative members, but could struggle to find support in Parliament.
TOLGA AKMEN
If Theresa May loses tonight’s vote, she’ll be out – and the jostling to replace her will begin.
But should that starting gun be fired, who will be leading the pack to take the keys to Downing Street?
Boris Johnson, the former Foreign Secretary and arch-critic of May’s Brexit plan, declined to rule out standing against May as recently as Sunday. But while he’s popular with grassroots Conservatives, it’s unclear whether he’d have the support required among fellow MPs.
Current Home Secretary Sajid Javid has become a strong pro-Brexit voice on Theresa May’s frontbench, and has been rising through the party’s ranks since he became an MP in 2010. But he voted to remain in the 2016 referendum, which could hurt him with leave-supporting Conservatives frustrated by May’s negotiations with the EU.
Hardcore Brexiter and former Brexit Secretary David Davis could be tempted to run for the Conservative leadership for a second time, having been unsuccessful in 2005. Davis is seen by Brexiters as a potential “caretaker” who could either renegotiate a more palatable deal for the pro-Brexit wing of the party or guide the country through a hard Brexit scenario.
Other names to keep an eye on include Michael Gove, who denied leadership intentions just this morning but has also run for the top job before, and Amber Rudd, the former Home Secretary who recently returned to May’s cabinet after resigning in the wake of a scandal over the deportation of Windrush Generation immigrants.
Jacob Rees-Mogg will be near the top of many hard Brexiters’ wish lists. The staunch conservative is head of the European Research Group (ERG), which for decades has been singularly focused on withdrawing the UK from the EU. And Dominic Raab, who resigned as Brexit Secretary last month in protest at May’s deal, could consider a run – though he’d likely be hurt by comments he made while in the post, when he admitted that he “hadn’t quite understood” how much the UK relied on the Dover-Calais crossing for trade.