Theresa May’s Brexit deal rejected overwhelmingly by UK lawmakers

You can continue following our live coverage on Brexit here.

?British Prime Minister Theresa May leaves Downing Street on March 12, 2019.

Like Theresa May, who we suspect is already tucked up in bed with some hot cocoa and cough syrup after battling with a hoarse voice all day, we’re calling it a night here in London.

In case you missed all the action, here’s our coverage of this evening’s vote, which saw the PM suffer a second humiliating defeat over Brexit – the rejection of her withdrawal agreement by a massive 149 votes.

We’ll be back in the morning, London time, for another Brexit-filled day, as MPs debate, and then vote on whether to back leaving the EU without a deal.

In the meantime, Luke McGee has answers to all those Brexit questions swirling around in everyone’s brains.

Several European leaders have tweeted their disappointment at parliament’s decision to reject Theresa May’s Brexit plan, even after additional assurances from the EU.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez tweeted that he “regrets” how tonight unfolded “despite the EU’s effort to achieve the best agreement.”

He added: “We need pro-European governments. Let’s protect Europe so that Europe can protect us.”

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte also tweeted, saying the only way forward is for London to find a solution and that like other EU nations, the Netherlands is stepping up preparations for a no-deal Brexit.

While Denmark’s Prime Minister, Lars Rasmussen, simply wrote: “Very sad.”

Lawmakers have soundly rejected Theresa May’s Brexit deal for a second time, so what happens next?

In line with a promise set out by the Prime Minister last month, MPs will vote Wednesday on whether they support the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal on March 29.

But a vote against a no-deal Brexit would not actually prevent the UK leaving the EU in 17 days, since Article 50, which mandates the UK’s departure, has already been triggered.

So if lawmakers reject “no deal,” a third vote is expected on Thursday, in which MPs will vote on whether they support delaying the divorce process entirely.

If they back that, the PM will have to put in an Article 50 extension request to the EU.

The heads of all 27 remaining EU countries would have to approve any such request.

Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has issued a seething statement, saying tonight’s vote was “entirely predictable” and something that could have been avoided if the UK government “had been prepared to listen … and engage constructively.”

“Instead, we have a government that has effectively ceased to function and a country that remains poised on a cliff edge,” Sturgeon said in a statement.

“Scotland’s needs and voice have been ignored by the UK government throughout the Brexit process,” she said, adding that the case for Scotland to become an independent country has “never been stronger.”

A total of 75 Conservative lawmakers from Theresa May’s party rebelled to reject her Brexit deal, according to figures published on the UK’s parliamentary website.

Here’s the full breakdown of how MPs voted tonight:

For:

Against:

The pound trimmed its losses after UK lawmakers voted against the latest version of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

The currency, which had been volatile ahead of the vote, was trading down 0.4% against the US dollar.

Investors are hopeful that lawmakers will follow up the major defeat for May with a vote on Wednesday to rule out a disorderly Brexit.

Is Brexit going away

Nice try! No. Brexit is happening on March 29 unless the UK applies for an extension to article 50. That vote is probably?going to take place on Thursday. The EU Council meets next week (March 21) which would likely be May’s nearest chance to apply for such an extension.?

Could the EU kick the UK out of the EU?

Short answer yes, but why would they? If the EU wanted a no deal crash out, they only need to wait another 17 days.?

Can the EU laugh and say no, when/if the UK asks for more time?

I doubt they would laugh – Eurocrats are not famed for their sense of humor (apart from Donald Tusk) – but with a heavy heart, the leaders of the EU 27 members states could decline the UK’s request for an extension to article 50. It only takes one member state to veto the extension and many of them have good reason for doing so. The EU has been consistent that if the UK asks for an extension with sensible suggestions as to how they can get out of this trench, it would be carefully considered. But EU diplomats have also made clear for months that they see no point is delaying only to end up back where we are now.?

Is Theresa May going to resign?

History says no, at least in the immediate future. May has an extraordinary ability to cling on to power. With an EU summit days away and Brexit far from sorted, May is, whatever you think of her, a dedicated public servant. It’s hard to see how she would see it’s in the best interests of the UK to suddenly create uncertainty around the leadership of the country, on top of everything else.?

What about another referendum?

Right now, the clearest path to a second Brexit vote is if the opposition Labour Party puts forward an amendment that a majority of the House of Commons backs. Labour recently adopted a formal policy of backing a second public vote on Brexit, should their alternative plan to May’s be defeated in a commons vote, which it was last month. But people hoping to see Brexit cancelled should keep the champagne corked for the time being. Labour hasn’t tabled any such amendment to date, and there’s a pretty good reason for that: they don’t think it will pass. The risk of losing that vote is too great to play around with and would both undermine the authority of the opposition and exacerbate divisions within the party. Yes, it’s not just May’s Conservatives that have problems…?

The other reason Remainers should hold off the celebrations is this: it’s not clear that even if a second public vote were to be held, Remain would be on the ballot. Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party, has been careful not to endorse the so-called “People’s Vote” campaign and instead always words his second referendum plan as a second public vote.

What about another election?

Now you’re talking. Some think that Labour only backed a second vote because of its ultimate desire to force an early general election?– something the party believes it could win. Labour saw success in the 2017 snap election by having a Schrodinger’s Brexit policy – appearing more Europhile that the Conservatives while officially supporting leaving the EU. Formally backing a second referendum has a similar affect, especially if the government continually blocks the possibility of it happening.?

And if you think this sounds far-fetched, today, Labour aides were celebrating the fact that the Commons speaker John Bercow didn’t accept any amendments.

Is the threat that Brexit can be lost real?

The sight of May and President of the European Commission Jean Claude Juncker sat side-by-side Monday night, claiming it was this deal or no Brexit, was nothing short of extraordinary. Both know that this isn’t really true. The only way Brexit can be lost is if the UK revokes Article 50. It would need to pass an act of parliament to do so, which without a public vote instructing parliament to do so is a total non-starter. It could happen, but it would require first a Brexit delay, then a national vote with a huge majority.?

Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, is clearly singing from the same hymn sheet as European Council President Donald Tusk, tweeting that the EU “has done everything it can to help get the Withdrawal Agreement over the line.”

Like Tusk, Barnier hinted that tonight’s result had increased the chances that the UK will crash out of the EU without a deal.

European Council President Donald Tusk says the EU is “disappointed” by tonight’s Brexit result – and that it has done “all that is possible to reach an agreement” with the UK.

“Given the additional assurances provided by the EU in December, January and yesterday, it is difficult to see what more we can do. If there is a solution to the current impasse it can only be found in London,” Tusk said in a statement, supplied by his spokesman.

“With only 17 days left to 29 March, today’s vote has significantly increased the likelihood of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. We will continue our no-deal preparations and ensure that we will be ready if such a scenario arises.”

Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn speaking in Parliament.

Addressing the House of Commons after MPs inflicted a resounding defeat on Theresa May’s Brexit deal, opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said the PM’s time was up.

“The Prime Minister has run down the clock, and the clock has been run out on her.”

The Labour leader suggested that perhaps it was time for a general election.

British Prime Minister Theresa May has told the House of Commons she “profoundly regrets” the fact that lawmakers opted to vote against her Brexit deal.

Struggling to speak as she is losing her voice, she said she still passionately believes that the best course for the UK is to leave the EU in an “orderly manner,” with a deal.

“The deal we negotiated is the best and indeed the only deal available,” May added.

“Leaving without a deal remains the default in UK and EU law.”

On Wednesday, lawmakers will be given the chance to vote on whether they support leaving the EU without a deal.?

In a major rejection, British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit withdrawal deal was voted down by lawmakers in the House of Commons.

MPs rejected the agreement by 391 votes to 242 – a majority of 149.

It’s the second time her deal has failed.

The coming days will be unpredictable, as British lawmakers vote on whether to crash out of the European Union without a deal, or to delay the divorce process.

May had hoped that changes to her deal agreed with the EU at the last minute on Monday night would get her deal across the line, but many lawmakers remained reluctant to back it.

British lawmakers are tweeting that the “no” lobby – where MPs are voting on Theresa May’s Brexit deal – is “absolutely rammed.”

“Haven’t seen the no lobby this full since the last meaningful vote,” Tim Farron from the Liberal Democrats wrote.

British MPs are now voting on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal for the second time, almost two months after it suffered the largest ever Commons defeat. The result of the vote is expected imminently.

Conservative lawmakers continue admit that while Theresa May’s deal isn’t perfect, they have chosen to support it.

Edward Leigh appealed to MPs in the House of Commons that if they reject the Prime Minister’s deal, they are going against the “will of the people” who voted to leave the EU on March 29.

“There is a much greater risk for us Brexiteers that parliament will block a no deal and the next day parliament will vote to extend article 50. For those of us who believe in Brexit and delivering the will of the people, that is a far greater risk – a far greater risk – than the fairly small risk of us being trapped in a backstop forever.

“So I appeal to my fellow Brexiteers – you may not like the deal, it’s not perfect, but it delivers Brexit and let’s go for it.”

While another Conservative MP, Tracey Crouch said she would support May’s deal “only to stop remainers from keeping us locked in the EU forever.”

The European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, has warned UK lawmakers that without a withdrawal agreement, Britain will crash out of the EU on March 29.

“Let me be clear: the only legal basis for a transition is the WA. No withdrawal agreement means no transition,” he tweeted.

The crunch Brexit vote is due to happen in the next 30 minutes. Here’s what you’ll see if you’re watching the action in the House of Commons at 7 p.m. UK time (3 p.m. ET):

The Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, will say something along the lines of: “The Question is, that the Bill be read a second time. As many as are of that opinion say Aye.”

At this point, those who support the bill yell “Aye!” He then adds: “of the contrary No,” prompting those who are against it to shout “No!”

Bercow then says “I think the Ayes have it…” If MPs yell “No!” in response, he will announce a vote by bellowing: “Clear the Lobbies”.?

The division bell will then sound throughout the Houses of Parliament.

MPs will file out of the Commons to cast their vote by coming back into the chamber again, through one of the two division lobbies, the “Aye” lobby (to vote yes) or the “No” lobby, past clerks, who take their names, and tellers, who count up the votes.

They will have eight minutes to do this; once they are back inside, the doors are locked and the tellers announce the numbers of “Ayes to the left” and “Noes to the right.”

The Speaker will then repeat the numbers, and announce which side has won, either: “the Ayes have it,” or “the Noes have it,” before instructing the Parliamentary authorities to “Unlock the doors!”

Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Fein president, told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that Ireland has a “very unique set of circumstances. It was always the case, therefore, that a set of unique bespoke solutions would have to be offered for our island to protect our economy, our trade, our citizens, our rights, and crucially our peace process.”

The Brexit negotiation process, McDonald said, has been “marked by recklessness on the part of the Tory government.”

McDonald went on to say that, “Brexit has laid bare for all to see the real jeopardy that partition brings to the island of Ireland: to our economy, to our society, to our social fabric and to our institutions.”

“The fact is that the border on the island of Ireland is now no longer simply an Irish problem: it is now a European problem.”

Should the UK crash out of the European Union, McDonald said, “a referendum on Irish unity, I think, will be absolutely essential.”

Independent Group MP Joan Ryan has set out the breakaway group’s plans while speaking to CNN’s Hala Gorani. Tomorrow, the group will vote against a no deal Brexit – “that should be off the table,” Ryan said. Today, she added, they would vote against May’s deal.

On Thursday, the Independent Group will press for an extension of Article 50, Ryan said, adding, “We want that extension of Article 50, and we want a series of indicative votes to decide which withdrawal deal to put to the people.”

“We should go back to the people for a choice between the status quo – remain – or the withdrawal deal that gets the majority vote next week,” she said.

Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson speaking in the House of Commons.

Britain’s former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has lambasted the efforts of Prime Minister Theresa May and Attorney General Geoffrey Cox to disguise the “embarrassment” of their Brexit deal, saying “whatever the government has tried to do, it has not, I’m afraid, succeeded,” according to the UK’s Press Association.

“The result is like Adam and Eve in the Garden of Eden – they have sewed an apron of fig leaves that does nothing to conceal the embarrassment and indignity of the UK,” Johnson told the House of Commons.

“We can … decide that if the EU is unwilling to accept the minor changes that we propose that we’ll leave without a deal – and, yes, I accept that that is in the short term the more difficult road – but in the end it’s the only safe route out of the abyss and the only safe path to self respect.”

Several Conservative lawmakers who voted against Theresa May’s original Brexit deal in January have announced they will now support the Prime Minister’s bill this evening.

While some argue that it has been “improved,” others say the risk of a no-deal Brexit is just too high if the bill is voted down.

Meanwhile, Zac Goldsmith says he is still trying to decide how to cast his vote.

The MP says he’s weighing up which is worse: a flawed deal, or a no-deal Brexit.

European Commission Vice President Jyrki Katainen?says if British lawmakers reject Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement tonight, a “hard Brexit” will be closer than ever.

“Keep your hands on the wheel, look forward and fasten your seatbelt,” Katainen told reporters in Strasbourg, while miming buckling up and smiling.

Demonstrators outside the Houses of Parliament are braving lashing rain and winds ahead of a highly anticipated vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal tonight.

Pro-Brexit protesters could be seen sheltering from the weather under plastic sheets, while a solitary remain supporter stood amid the traffic holding a European Union flag.

Prime Minister Theresa May lost her voice just when it seemed she needed it most, ahead of a crucial vote on her Brexit withdrawal agreement.

Stepping up to the despatch box on Tuesday afternoon, the PM was unable to say much more than “Mr Speaker,” before having to clear her throat.

Responding to jokes and heckling from Labour MPs in the House of Commons, the prime minister quipped: “you should hear Jean-Claude Juncker’s voice.”

It’s not the first time May’s voice has made headlines. Her speech to the Conservative Party Conference in 2017 was famously overshadowed by her croaky delivery and repeatedly interrupted by enforced pauses for coughs, splutters and gulps of water.

As May stares down the barrel of what looks set to be another embarrassing defeat, there is lots of talk about her future, that of her Conservative Party and of the general sense of malaise in UK politics.?

There’s no doubt that Brexit has taken its toll on virtually everyone involved in this country’s politics.

It shouldn’t have come as a great surprise to anyone that trying to undo 40-plus years of legal, political and economic integration in two years was going to be a mind-bender.?

The weight of Brexit has dominated the political and legislative agenda of the UK for the best part of three years, to the cost of other urgent policy areas like housing, urban renewal and crime, among other things.?

The fact that we are now 17 days out and still screaming into the wind is exhausting enough to cover as a journalist; imagine having to vote on this stuff as a politician.?

And while Brexit has taken it out of everyone, across the political divide, the governing Conservative Party’s misery has been particularly acute.

The Sun newspaper’s political editor tweeted that during this debate, May’s leadership looks like it has an “end of days” feel to it:

It’s no surprise that today – arguably the most important date of her leadership so far – this feeling is worse than usual, however the truth is this frustration has been building for over 18 months now.

But end of days? Some Conservatives certainly feel that her leadership is on life support and that the party is in peril until she goes. Others dismiss this as (putting this kindly) careless talk.

What’s undeniable is that the party is bitterly divided and it’s hard to see these wounds being healed while May remains in power. Yet history suggests May will keep going and going for as long as she can.??

So whether you are a May loyalist or an MP stuck with a Prime Minister you hate, today must feel particularly dark for any Conservative.?

The European Research Group, a group of hardline Brexiteers, has not yet decided how it will vote later on Theresa May’s Brexit deal, ERG chairman Jacob Rees-Mogg told the BBC.

“We’re meeting at 5 o’clock when we’ll make our decision, we’re going to have a full discussion then. But the legal team has put out its opinions,” Rees-Mogg said.

“I wouldn’t hold your breath for us to come out and say we’re backing the deal,” he added.

Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, a longstanding Euroskeptic, did not push for another Brexit referendum in his address to the Commons on Tuesday, despite his party’s official position backing a second vote on the issue.

MPs Anna Soubry and Chris Leslie, who have joined the newly formed Independent Group, highlighted this inconsistency on Twitter.

A Downing Street source has told the UK’s Press Association Prime Minister Theresa May is not preparing for a general election, following calls from some members of her party to trigger a vote should her Brexit deal fail this evening.

“We are not preparing for and we do not want a general election,” the source told PA. “Our position is unchanged.”

The source added that reports the Conservative campaign headquarters were preparing for the upcoming European elections were “incorrect.”

“We are not preparing candidates because we are not going to participate as a party in European parliamentary elections.”

The leaders of the European Union’s 27 member states have not discussed a possible extension to the Brexit withdrawal process, which could be voted on by parliament on Thursday if Theresa May’s deal is defeated this evening, an EU source told CNN.

“We have never discussed… the extension at the level of Heads of State and Government,” the source said. “It has been raised at the ambassador level, but there’s been no substantial discussion.”?

The source added that a request for an extension would only be seriously considered if:

The source said May had raised the possibility of an extension for the first time in her bilateral meeting with European Council President Donald Tusk at a summit in?Sharm?el-Sheikh last month.

May told Tusk an extension might be necessary in a benign scenario in which the deal goes through, but Brexit legislation is not yet in place.

“There is a great deal of frustration on our side,” the source told CNN. “The EU has negotiated in good faith and made a lot of compromises during the last two years.

“We reached an agreement with the UK government on 25 November. Afterwards, in three rounds we have come up with additional reassurances - political and legal. I think there is a strong feeling that we have no more to give.”

Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn addresses the House of Commons after Theresa May's speech.

Opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has told lawmakers that Theresa May’s rejigged deal fails to achieve its goals of establishing a “legally binding time limit” and a “unilateral exit clause” to the Irish border backstop arrangement.

Corbyn condemned the withdrawal deal as “all spin and no substance,” adding that “not one single word” has been changed since May’s agreement suffered a stunning defeat in parliament two months ago.

Anna Soubry, former Conservative MP and Independent Group member, asked May to confirm that she rejected a cross party compromise involving a customs union and a single market two years ago, arguing that, “the difficulty has been her inability to move away from her red lines.”

In response, May told the Commons, “We have to look at what it was that the British people were voting for when they voted in the referendum of 2016.

“What we’ve put through are proposals which enjoy some of the benefits of the customs union – like no tariffs, no rules of origin checks – but do it in a way that delivers an independent trade policy,” she said.

The Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, has not selected any amendments to the government’s Brexit deal motion, which will be voted on tonight.

“I can inform the house that I have not selected any of the amendments,” Bercow told lawmakers.

His decision means MPs will vote on Theresa May’s deal at 7 p.m. local time, 3 p.m. ET tonight.

After the Northern Ireland’s?Democratic Unionist Party announced it would not support Theresa May’s Brexit deal, a chorus of lawmakers has begun predicting her defeat.

Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry tweeted that the government would not get its deal through parliament. “The only question is, how big will the defeat be?” she asked.

Also posting on Twitter, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon suggested that, had May not “spent all her energy trying to appease ERG/DUP,” perhaps she might not have found herself in this position.

Who’d be the Prime Minister right now? Less that 24 hours after boldly claiming she had secured legally-binding reassurances on the Brexit deal she’d struck with the EU, Theresa May’s own Attorney General told lawmakers the changes were less law law, more jaw jaw, to paraphrase another British PM beyond recognition.?

As things stand, it’s looking very unlikely that May can overturn her historic January Commons defeat tonight.

And in the event of a loss, something very interesting could happen.?

Last month, May promised lawmakers that, should the government’s bill be defeated today, tomorrow they would be given the chance to vote on whether the UK should leave the EU without a deal.

In response Matt Warman, MP for one of the UK’s most pro-Brexit seats, wrote on Twitter that he would support May in Meaningful Vote two, but that if the deal failed, he would support a “no deal” a day later.

This idea that stopping Brexit is a betrayal of democracy could yet capture the imagination of a few more MPs.

It’s still unlikely to pass, but if more than the 24 hardline Brexiteers vote for a “no deal” Brexit on Wednesday, it will send a message to the government – and, more importantly, to Brussels – on the direction of travel in London.?

Angela Smith, former Labour MP and one of the founding members of the Independent Group, has told CNN’s Julia Chatterley the group will vote against May’s deal.

“Are any of the options available in the political declaration as good as the deal we’ve got now, as members of the EU? Our view is that none of them are,” Smith said, adding that the UK was heading towards a “blind Brexit” under May’s proposals.

She reiterated her support for a “people’s vote” on Brexit, saying, “Nobody knew what Leave would look like.”

Smith criticized May’s leadership, accusing her of “having a conversation with her own party,” and condemned the opposition Labour party for not tabling an amendment to May’s motion on “the biggest day in political history since the war.”

Northern Ireland’s?Democratic Unionist Party has indicated it will not back Theresa May’s Brexit deal, saying in a statement that “sufficient progress has not been achieved at this time.”

“We want to see a deal which works for every part of the United Kingdom.?We will support the right deal which respects the referendum result and Northern Ireland’s place as an integral part of the United Kingdom,” the DUP said.

The DUP has demanded a clean break with the EU; it opposes any move that would give Northern Ireland different status from mainland Britain.

In its statement on Tuesday, the DUP said it had carefully considered May’s new provisions on the Irish backstop, but found that “risks remain that the UK would be unable to lawfully exit the backstop, were it to be activated.”

Without support from the DUP, whose 10 MPs prop up May’s minority government, the Prime Minister’s deal is almost certain to face defeat.?

Prime Minister Theresa May addresses the House of Commons ahead of a vote on her Brexit deal.

Prime Minister Theresa May has warned lawmakers in the House of Commons that if her reworked Brexit withdrawal deal is not passed tonight, “Brexit could be lost.”

“The danger for those of us who want to have faith in the British public and deliver on their vote for Brexit, is that if this vote is not passed tonight, if this deal is not passed, then Brexit could be lost,” May said.

“Tonight, members of this house are faced with a clear choice: vote for this deal and leave the EU, or risk no deal and no Brexit,” May added, warning of the looming uncertainty that lawmakers would usher in by rejecting her deal.

Prime Minister Theresa May is now addressing lawmakers in the House of Commons – with what sounds like a particularly hoarse voice – ahead of a vote on her Brexit deal.

Conservative MP Charles Walker, a member of the backbench 1922 committee, says Theresa May should call a general election if she loses tonight’s vote.

“The Prime Minister could announce by the end of this week we need a general election,” Walker told BBC’s the World at One.

“It is not sustainable, the current situation in Parliament,” he said. “We have to make a decision tonight and it has to be to let this deal pass.”

Nigel Evans, a Conservative MP and member of the European Research Group, has told CNN’s Julia Chatterley that Theresa May warned backbenchers not to vote against her latest deal, lest they risk the UK staying in the EU.

“The risk of being trapped in the European Union if this deal doesn’t go through tonight has increased,” Evans said. “It’s all about politics now. It’s the political judgement that we have to make.”

Evans said he would back May’s deal tonight, after voting against it in January. “I do see the risk of being trapped in the European Union and that is a bigger risk than being trapped in the backstop,” he said.

He also stressed the importance of the DUP’s approval of the deal, telling Chatterley, “If they’re not on side, there’s not a chance that her deal will pass tonight.”

The hardline Brexiteer European Research Group’s “star chamber” has released the conclusions from its own legal analysis of Prime Minister Theresa May’s revised Brexit deal, including assurances on the Irish backstop agreement.

“Yesterday’s documents considered individually and collectively do not deliver ‘legally binding changes’ to the WA (Withdrawal Agreement) or to the (backstop) Protocol,” the group said in a statement.

“They fail to fulfill the commitment made by Government to the House in response to the Brady amendment ‘to obtain legally binding changes to the Withdrawal Agreement.’”

The group added that eleventh-hour agreements May made in Strasbourg with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker “do not provide any exit mechanism from the Protocol which is under the UK’s control.”

Conservative MP Sir Bill Cash, a member of the hardline Brexiteer European Research Group’s Star Chamber, said that he would not recommend that lawmakers back the government’s motion today, citing the group’s own legal analysis.

“In the light of our own legal analysis and others we do not recommend accepting the Government’s motion today,” Cash said, according to the UK Press Association.

In response to a question by hardline Brexiteer and Conservative MP William Cash, asserting that May’s deal offers “insufficient protection for Northern Ireland to continue as part of the United Kingdom,” the Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, said the deal encouraged the EU to get the UK out of the Irish backstop.

“The incentives or disincentives for the European Union are as profound if not greater to get us out of the backstop than to keep us in it,” he said. “These improvements do make a difference.”

Cox also stressed that the UK had a right to exit the backstop unilaterally “if circumstances fundamentally change.” “There is no question that we have a right to exit if those circumstances apply,” he said.

As things stand, yes.

Today is simply a vote on the deal May has arranged with the EU. The UK is still scheduled to leave the European Union on March 29 – with or without a deal.

The only ways this can be prevented are:

May’s deal currently looks unlikely to pass, as does the subsequent vote in favor of no deal scheduled for Wednesday. This would give parliament the chance to ask May to request delaying Brexit on Thursday. But doing so throws the UK at the mercy of Brussels, something perceived to be politically toxic.

Also politically toxic: revoking article 50. While it is legally possible for the UK to withdraw article 50 without consulting the EU, doing so without consulting the public could lead to untold mayhem.

Consulting the public, you say? You mean like a second referendum? Well, yes. A second public vote on Brexit has become considerably more likely since the main opposition Labour Party made a second vote its official policy in the event of the deadlock continuing.

However, the party is unlikely to table an amendment calling for a vote tomorrow, as it’s still unclear if parliament would back it.

Even if such an amendment were to be put forward, exactly what question would be put to the public is anyone’s guess – Labour has been far from consistent in its view that “Remain” would even be an option.

And Labour is very worried about the damage that being seen as the party frustrating Brexit could do to MPs in Brexit-supporting areas of the UK – which might go some way to explaining why it hasn’t begun pushing for a second vote yet.

So yes, Brexit is still happening, even if May’s Brexit deal fails.

British Attorney General Geoffrey Cox has urged members of parliament to back Theresa May’s Brexit deal, speaking after the publication of his legal advice on the prime minister’s latest assurances on the Irish backstop.

Opponents of the deal have in the past several hours seized upon his legal opinion that May’s announcement Monday does not give the UK the legal right to exit the controversial Irish backstop unilaterally.

But Cox argued in the House of Commons that lawmakers should still vote in favor of the deal.

Ever since Theresa May’s Brexit deal was crushed in the House of Commons – and arguably even before then – the view in Brussels has been that the UK is an unreliable negotiating partner. To date, the EU has no evidence that anything said in meetings in Brussels or anything agreed with the other EU members states has any chance of receiving political support in the UK. But trust doesn’t go one way.?

Here in London, trust is also in short supply. Both Brexiteers and Remainers have become deeply skeptical of Theresa May and her government for betraying Brexit and giving away far too much to Brussels, and bending over backwards to placate the hardliners in her own party, respectively.??

Brexiteers also don’t hold must stock in anything that the EU says about the Brexit negotiations.?

Rewind to Monday night, and EU Commission President Jean Claude Juncker is sat beside Theresa May saying that the UK has a choice of this deal “or Brexit might not happen at all.”?

The optics of this are troubling for a few reasons. First, Juncker knows all too well that this simply is not the case. As per article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union, once a member gives notification of its intention to leave, that’s it. Once two years is up, it’s all over, deal or no deal. Second, it chimes worryingly with Olly Robbins’ warning last month, which Brexiteers interpreted as some kind of plot to steal Brexit from them. Third, it feeds the Unicorn logic of hardline Remainers that the UK is currently in a position to take no deal off the table.?

Juncker went on to say that this vote was the UK’s last chance: “In politics, sometimes you get a second chance. It is what we do with the second chance that counts. Because there will be no third chance.”

The problem is, dependent on how you view these things, this has not been the first false final chance.

As Jacob Rees-Mogg, chairman of the pro-Brexit European Research Group, told the BBC this morning: “I would never take the EU saying ‘there will be no change’ at face value, because they said there would be no second round, and there has been.”?

What’s all this got to do with today’s vote? The assurances May got out of the EU last night, we now know, are in the opinion of the UK’s Attorney General, not legally-binding.

Rather, they rely on political declaration that the EU would not seek to trap the UK in anything. Without legal assurances, trust is all these people have.

So much attention is given to the tangible obstacles in Brexit – the Irish border, trade, arithmetic. But the biggest obstacle is nearly constantly overlooked: the politics of the gut doesn’t abide by the rules of traditional political messaging.?

Attorney General Geoffrey Cox?addresses the House of Commons.

Speaking to the House of Commons on Tuesday, UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox reiterated the assessment laid out in his letter to Prime Minister Theresa May that her agreement with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker provides no “internationally lawful means” of exiting from the backstop agreement.

“The legal risk remains unchanged,” Cox said of May’s claim that she had secured “legally binding changes” to her deal on Monday, after flying to Strasbourg for down-to-the-wire talks with the EU.

But Cox said that the clarifications and new obligations laid out in the “joint instrument” agreed by May and Juncker last night supply a substantive and binding enforcement of the legal rights available to the UK in the event of a breach of good faith and the deal falling apart.

“The provisions of the joint instrument represent materially new legal obligations which enhance its existing terms,” Cox said.

“The question for the house is whether, in light of these political improvements, the house should now enter these arrangements,” he added. “In the end, it’s a political decision.”

UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is addressing members of parliament on his legal opinion about the Brexit breakthrough Theresa May claimed on Monday, after flying to Strasbourg for down-to-the-wire talks with the EU. Cox says the agreement does not change the legal risk that the UK could be trapped in the Irish backstop indefinitely.

Conservative MP Crispin Blunt says the European Union “have not really negotiated in a way that would enable both sides to claim a success.”

Referring to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s statement at last night’s press conference that “there will be no third chance” regarding Brexit negotiations, Blunt told CNN, “there’s an arrogance there about the way in which it’s being presented to the United Kingdom.”

When asked if Theresa May should step down if her deal is rejected tonight, Blunt responded, “I hope that our Prime Minister will stay solid, she will ensure that the United Kingdom leaves the [European Union] on the 29th of March. If her deal is rejected tonight, then we are leaving without an agreement, to World Trade Organization terms.”

Nick Boles, a popular Conservative lawmaker best known of late for his cross-bench work in trying to find a compromise for a softer Brexit that could actually pass a Commons vote, has just tweeted this:

It’s not an unreasonable thing to say: voting for the deal does exactly what Brexiteers want, if you still believe what they want is to leave on March 29.?

And yet… it’s worth remembering what Olly Robbins allegedly said late at night in a Brussels bar last month: Brexiteers will eventually have to make a choice between May’s deal and delaying Brexit.?

While there is no suggestion that this is a deliberate strategy, back then it was pretty clear that we were starting to see how Brexit would ultimately play out. At the time I wrote this short analysis about the last eight days of Brexit.

Unfortunately, it’s possible that this drama is far from over.?

Following Attorney General Geoffrey Cox’s legal advice that UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s latest Brexit maneuver has not changed the risk of the UK remaining stuck in the Irish border backstop indefinitely, here’s a look again at why the backstop is such a big deal:

One of the big fears in the Brexit debate is that Britain’s departure from the EU will mean the reintroduction of border posts on the frontier between Northern Ireland, part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member.

Border infrastructure was often targeted by Irish nationalist paramilitaries during?the “Troubles”?– the 40-year sectarian conflict in which more than 3,500 people died.

May’s Brexit deal avoids the reintroduction of a so-called “hard” Irish border, because of the built-in transition period that keeps the UK in a customs union with the EU.

The problems come if there’s no agreement on what to do after the transition period ends in 2020. Enter the Irish “backstop,” an insurance policy designed to avoid a hard border if no other solution to police the border are found by that time.

This has infuriated hard-line Brexiteers, worried the UK will never “properly” leave the bloc. They want to be free of the customs union, in order to forge international trade deals that would require the UK to be free of EU regulations on issues like agriculture, fisheries, food standards and the environment.

The Democratic Unionist Party, whose 10 MPs prop up May’s minority government in London, also demands a clean break with the EU, and oppose any move to give Northern Ireland different status from mainland Britain.

The crucial sticking point is that the Brexit deal, as it stands, states that neither side can leave the backstop unilaterally. Brexiteers hate the idea that the EU would hold a power of veto over the UK – and the backstop may never end.

May sought to assuage their fears by “securing legally binding changes” to her deal during last-minute talks with EU leaders in Strasbourg last night, but Cox said the assurances to not reduce the legal risk.

Keir Starmer, Labour’s Shadow Brexit Secretary, responded to UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox’s legal advice on Twitter. “The Government’s strategy is now in tatters,” he wrote.

UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox’s conclusions on the significance of Theresa May’s latest Brexit maneuver are found in paragraphs 16, 17 and 19 of his legal advice published Tuesday. Here are those key lines:

Cox: Determining that a party is “acting in bad faith” is difficult.

Cox: May’s Brexit “breakthrough” reduces political risk.

Cox: But it does not eliminate legal risk.

The legal advice from UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is not just a nail in the coffin, it’s the guillotine that is going to chop Theresa May’s EU withdrawal deal to pieces.

She was hoping her “legally binding assurances” on the Irish border backstop were going to be the fig leaf. Now there’s no doubt – she is not going to get her divorce deal through.

The British pound dropped sharply in reaction to UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox’s legal advice, dropping 0.8% against the dollar. The pound was slightly up before the opinion was published, buoyed by assurances that Prime Minister Theresa May had won “legally binding assurances” on the Irish border backstop.

UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox’s legal advice has been published. He says the Brexit breakthrough Theresa May claimed on Monday, after flying to Strasbourg for down-to-the-wire talks with the EU, does not change the legal risk that the UK could be trapped in the Irish backstop indefinitely.

You can read his full legal opinion here.

Conservative lawmakers and members of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Cabinet are urging their colleagues to back her “improved” deal today.

UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox will deliver a statement to lawmakers at about 12:30 p.m. GMT today laying out his legal opinion on the Brexit deal, the leader of the House of Commons, Andrea Leadsom, confirmed on Twitter.

Leadsom said that Cox will address the “joint instrument” agreed by Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker last night, which aims to guarantee that the EU cannot apply the Irish backstop indefinitely. It also makes a commitment to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements by 2020.

Pro-Brexit campaign group Leave Means Leave has said that the new documents agreed by Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker should be “ignored.”

“PM conning us all. Still means NI [Northern Ireland] treated differently to rest of UK. Still worst deal in history,” Richard Tice, of Leave Means Leave, said on Twitter, calling on members of parliament to vote down the deal.

Ireland’s Taoiseach, or prime minister,?Leo Varadkar?has said that Theresa May’s agreement with European Commission President Jean-Claude?Juncker last night does not change the Brexit withdrawal agreement or undermine the Irish backstop, a mechanism which aims to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland.

“It does not reopen the withdrawal agreement or undermine the backstop or its application,” Varadkar said in a televised statement Tuesday morning, calling the move “positive.”

He added that he hoped the withdrawal agreement would be passed through the House of Commons today, to lift the “dark cloud” of Brexit and “restore confidence and optimism in Britain, Ireland and across the European Union.”

The government motion for today’s Brexit vote asks lawmakers to approve five documents: the withdrawal agreement and political declaration agreed last year, along with three more negotiated by Theresa May in Strasbourg yesterday. These are the three others:

All eyes are on UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, who is expected to publish updated legal advice on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit withdrawal deal, in light of “legally binding changes” she secured to it during last-minute talks with EU leaders in Strasbourg.

Channel 4 News presenter Jon Snow suggested on Twitter Tuesday morning that the attorney general dismissed May’s changes as invalid, to which Cox tweeted: “Bollocks.”

Opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said Tuesday that British lawmakers must reject Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

“Since her Brexit deal was so overwhelmingly rejected, the Prime Minister has recklessly run down the clock, failed to effectively negotiate with the EU and refused?to find common ground for a deal Parliament could support. That’s why MPs must reject this deal today,” Corbyn said on Twitter.

Corbyn added that May’s eleventh hour agreement with the EU did not contain “anything approaching the changes” she promised to parliament.

Lawmakers are due to have a second vote on the deal Tuesday, a day after May’s government said it had negotiated legally binding changes to the deal that lawmakers roundly rejected in January.

Britain’s Former Attorney General Dominic Grieve has said he will vote against the Prime Minister’s latest Brexit withdrawal deal.

“The proper thing to do is to put it back to the public in a people’s vote, in a second referendum,” Grieve said in an interview with the BBC Tuesday morning.

Grieve argues that the changes May has negotiated in last-minute talks with the EU “doesn’t make any significant difference” to the terms of the UK’s withdrawal or the backstop, an insurance policy designed to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland, which remains part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member.

He added that May’s new deal does not, as a matter of law, give the UK a right to come out of the backstop if negotiations were to break down.

File photo of Britain's former attorney general Dominic Grieve arriving at 10 Downing Street on January 9, 2019.

9:30 a.m.: Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to chair a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday morning, after “securing legally binding changes” to her deal during last-minute talks with EU leaders in Strasbourg.

10:30 a.m.: Deadline for MPs to submit amendments to this evening’s vote.

Mid-morning: It’s expected that the pro-Brexit Conservative European Research Group?will meet to examine May’s new deal.

Mid-morning: UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is expected to publish updated legal advice on the deal, in response to those changes.

12:30 p.m.: We could see a Commons statement or urgent questions on Cox’s legal advice.

1 p.m. or later: The House of Commons will begin debating May’s new deal in the afternoon.

7 p.m.: MPs start to vote, first on amendments, if any are selected, then on the deal itself.